Luck based Predictions

As I watch the American cinematic classic "Labyrinth" (driven by an excellent performance by David Bowie in tights) waiting for my 3 am train to Chicago for Opening Day, I thought it would be a great chance to kill time and give my massive catchup post on all types of predictions for the year.

Expect to see all types of grammar problems throughout my blogging experience, especially if you ever read any written by me after 2 am that are titled with such clever jealous titles as "Fuck the Cardinals" or the more philosophical "What if I am always waiting for next year?"

And no, I haven't adjusted my picks based off of the 1-1 A's, 1-1 Mariners, 1-0 Cardinals, and 0-1 Marlins.

With that said, Boom Goes the Dynamite and here are my prognostications for this year.




AL East
NYY - 94
BOS - 93
TB - 91
TOR - 81
BAL - 65

No division is tougher than this one. I think if TOR was in either league's Central division they would be the favorite, but with the juggernauts of Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, they will struggle to stay in the race. I see Yankee's new pitching rotation additions being enough to name them as the favorite but if Pineda doesn't recover to be a serviceable pitcher this year, the Rays and Red Sox have a great shot to take the division. The Red Sox have some great positional players leading the charge in Pedroia, Ellsbury and Gonzalez in their battle to regain a post-season presence. The Rays come in with the incredibly underrated duo of Zobrist and Longoria piling up WAR in the field while they will also be led by 4 pitchers that could put up #1 type numbers in Price, Shields, Hellickson, and Moore. Not much to say about Baltimore other than if sportsbooks took bets on teams likely to get last in there division, I would parlay them and the Astros with anyone I know's life.

AL Central
DET - 88
CLE - 81
KC - 76
CHI - 73
MIN - 72

Detroit should walk away with the division with the big addition to Prince Fielder to the lineup, now giving them 2 top 10 hitters in all of baseball (Miguel Cabrera obviously being the other) to go with the defending AL MVP Verlander on the mound. Cleveland has been the sleeper team for a lot of people in the off-season, and I do see improvement this year, but I think there sub-optimal infield defense and the inconsistency of Ubaldo Jimenez will prevent this from turning into a race. The Royals have what looks like to be the breakout star of 2012 in Eric Hosmer but they are stil 2 more years way from when they will overtake the Tigers for the division. The White Sox do have some hope for a better season with likely regression candidates like Adam Dunn and Beckham coming off of awful seasons but they simply weren't a good enough team last year to justify a better position this year. They lost their top pitcher and closer in the off-season while adding no significant parts so I couldn't talk myself into more wins for them. Minnesota has a lot riding on Mauer and Morneau but even with stellar seasons by them, Twins likely won't sniff the playoffs with so many below average starters on their team.

AL West
TEX - 93
ANA - 91
SEA - 72
OAK - 71

This year is going to come down to what in my opinion are the five best teams in baseball competing for 2 divisional titles and 2 wild cards, with at least one ensured to miss the playoffs (In fact, I have it so close that teams tie for the last playoff spot). Rangers have been to the World Series the past two years and while losing CJ Wilson will hurt, Yu Darvish could very well outperform him this year. Plus with the offense they trot out for games, Gary Gaetti could be getting pitching wins for them. Adding one of the best players in the history of baseball and the clear top American pitching free agent last year has made Angels instant contenders and I see this division and wildcard race going down the wire. Felix Hernandez is going to dominate on the mound and Jesus Montero should rake but Seattle's offense will continue to be an embarassment and keep the team out of contention. Take away two stars and add in higher quality pitching depth and you have a similar unlikely chance for the A's.

NL East
PHI - 91
ATL - 87
WAS - 86
MIA - 85
NYM - 70

Not a fan of Philly's overrated, aging infield but their pitching core should be more than enough to make them the repeat favorite in the division and NL. I would not be suprised to see any of the top 4 teams take the division. Braves simply haven't been out of contention since I have been out of diapers (maybe I had diapers too long, maybe I don't know how long it has been since they were under .500, but what I do know is I am too lazy to look it up), so them and their balanced team will be in it to win it this year. Nationals are probably my 3rd favorite team to follow next to the Cubs and Rays and they have as bright of 2014 future as any team in the NL but are probably still one big time bat away from being a serious contender for the world series title this year. I also should note that Stephen Strasburg is my favorite player to watch in all of baseball and in less than 12 hours I will be watching him effortlessly embarass my favorite team in all of sports. Marlins excellent misuse of public funds would not impress Ron Swanson but they sure will help them in my predictions for the season. Adding in top 10 by WAR positional player Reyes along with Buerhle and Bell should see the Marlins stay in the race all year. The Mets have little to celebrate other than the fact their owner only has to pay back $170+ from the Madoff scandal other than numbers that had been floated much higher.

NL Central
MIL - 88
STL - 88
CIN - 86
CHC - 73
PIT - 73
HOU - 63

Top 3 could go anyway. I love the top 3 in the pitching rotation for the Brewers (Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum) and with those horses and Braun's bat, I will make them co-favorites for the division. Cardinals should have enough talent to get the division or be close with Matt Holiday being a JD Drew type player that puts up higher WAR than people realize to an even greater extent. The Reds have Joey Votto and that alone should keep them in the race but their lack of depth and/or talent in the back of their starting rotation and bullpen has me more lukewarm to them than many others. As for the Cubs, in Theo we trust. Anyone who follows advance stats and the Cubs realizes we are a couple of years away from competing and that getting rid of Hendry (and some of his decisions that showed the foresight of investing in Bears Stearns) should see Theo as a step in the right direction. Andrew McCutchen is a sleeper pick for MVP but the lack of other talent on the team will keep him from getting the award. Houston was, is, and will continue to be the worst team in baseball.

NL West
SF - 88
ARI - 86
COL - 79
LAD - 76
SD - 70

Bringing Buster Posey back should be enough to make the Giants the favorite in the West. Having Lincecum and Cain (and Madison Bumgarner) at the top of the pitching rotation also helps. Justin Upton (see MVP prediction below) is a beast and Arizona's pitching staff should make it a quality contender, but unless Goldschmidt lives up to his unusually high statiscal projections by some experts, I don't see Arizona taking down the Giants again this year. Troy Tulowitzki has a legitimate claim to best player in baseball, but even on his very talented back, he will not be able to carry Colorado to .500, let alone a divisional title. The Dodgers are the team I dislike the most compared to actual "experts". Even if Kemp maintains his top numbers, I don't see enough talent, especially with the loss of the underrated Kuroda, to be the above .500 team that many predict. The Padres have a lot to look forward to with Keith Law's top minor league system but the talent is still years away and the talent in the majors is pretty few and far between so it is pretty reasonable to rank them in last though they still should be significantly better than other cellar dwellers like the Astros or Orioles.

AL Postseason
WC tie breaker- TB over ANA
AL WC- TB over BOS
ALDS - NYY over DET in 6; TEX over TB in 6
ALCS - NYY over TEX in 6

NL Postseason
NL WC - STL over ATL
NLDS - PHI over STL in 5; MIL over SF in 7
NLCS - PHI over MIL in 5

World Series
NYY over PHI in 7

I don't put much faith in predicting the playoffs because of the high variability associated in small sample sizes of somewhat similar talent but I see the Yankees and Phillies as the favorites in each league. Both MIL and SF have the pitching rotations to make a run at the WS if they make the playoffs but each as enough other questions that I think Phillies can do it. Of Course the Cardinals have already won 2 world series in the last 10 years without being a top 5 team so I am certainly not going to count them out either. The AL I might as well draw out of a hat but my belief in CC Sabathia and the Yankees offense has me making them the favorites with all of the other teams being the favorite over the Phillies if they made the world series in stead.

Post Season Award Predictions

NL MVP- Justin Upton. Baseball writers give it to teams that win and don't give it to pitchers unless a top team doesn't have a dominant position player. My predictions have the D'Backs missing playoffs but I think their record will be more than good enough to give Upton an MVP. I think he has a chance at 8 WAR this year. Last year he put up 6.4 WAR with a .319 babip. While the babip may sound high for those acquainted with the magical number of .300 but in this case it undersells Upton's ability because of what a great athlete he is. The two previous years his babip was .354 and .365 and if he approaches those numbers again, expect to see the league leader in WAR.

AL MVP- Evan Longoria- This was a much tougher pick for me. Honorable mention to Pujols who I think will have a great year but get enough LeBron treatment to keep him low on some ballots and then Josh Hamilton has a real chance to lead the AL in WAR for a division champion. However with that said, this is Longoria's year to break out and become a real superstar. Offense for 3rd basemen has been down significantly and Longoria's power and on base percentage along with his stellar defense makes him highly valuable to the Rays in their "David" like quest against against divisional "Goliaths" Yankees and Red Sox.

NL CY Young- Roy Halladay. Nothing is a better predictor of the future than the past. I am going with ole' reliable here to do it again.

AL CY Young- Justin Verlander- One of these days CC Sabbathia is going to break through but it is hard to not predict Verlander to win. Also honorable mention to Felix Hernandez who very likely might be the best pitcher in the AL but no way the voter will give him the award when either Verlander/Sabbathia/Haren/Weaver/Darvish all have a chance of putting up similar ERA's with 5+ more wins. The case for Verlander is that voters typically go to a pitcher that has the best combination of Wins and ERA and Verlander plays on the one team in all of baseball expected to walk to a divisional title. Going up against offensive lights weights in the AL Central compared to the monsters out in the AL East will do wonders for him, as will is high 90's fastball.

NL ROY- Devin Mesoraco- complete shot in the dark but I think he will play well, especially offensively compared to other catchers, if he gets the at bats for the Reds this year.

AL ROY- Matt Moore- I actually might be showing my Rays bias here because I think Darvish will have a hell of a year but Matt Moore has everything you look for in a pitcher. I would not be suprised to see Moore with a top 10 WAR for AL pitchers this year and if he pitched in a different division I would expecte a 3.2 like ERA instead of a more realistic one in the 3.6-3.7 range. For those unfamiliar with Fangraphs (this baseball-centric site is the best website for hard analysis in all of sports), you can look up a players career advanced stats, along with 5 different projection systems for the players upcoming season. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1890&position=P . Moore's predictions range across the board, with 2 out of 5 going with the 3.2 range while the numbers range as high as 3.9. Regardless of that range, he is going to pile up the strikeouts and be a joy for us baseball fans to watch for the foreseeable future.

Daily over/unders: …. I added my 1-10 confidence as well
1. Wins for Andy Pettitte - 10- Under- 8/10- Yankees have no reason to push his innings
2. Wins for Carlos Zambrano - 12- push- 5/10- 12 feels right, I think Big Z will have a big year but wins are harder to come by than most think
3. Hits by Ichiro Suzuki - 190 - over- 7/10- I think the lower numbers from last year were partially bad luck so unless he starts taking walks, he is going over
4. +/- of AL/NL interleague - +6 to AL - over- 10/10- AL is going to destroy NL... mine was+12.. NL having slightly superior cellar dwellers only thing
keepingit that close
5. Home Runs for Albert Pujols - 38- over- 2/10- I want to put under because only 4 guys went over 38 last year but Pujols was only 1 off and he simply is too good to think he isn't going to this year
6. Number of different ways national publications spell Samardzija - 3- push- number of ways I would spell it without looking it up would be a heavy bet on over
7. Times you'll attend a baseball game this season - 8- under- 9/10- I lived a mile from Wrigley last year and went to 4 games and I don't have any idea where I will be at this summer
8. RBIs for Prince Fielder - 115- over- 5/10- rbi's are a crapshootbut he should have people in front of him and he will rake this year
9. At-Bats for Manny Ramirez - 250- under- 7/10- wanted to put higher confidence but haven't been following enough to come out strong but assuming he has a 50 game suspension and isn't an everyday player it seems unlikely
10. ERA of Stephen Strasburg - 3.75- under- 11/10- the only way he goes over is if he pitches less than 15 innings and is shelled- He will be top 5 ERA in NL and run scoring is, and will continue to be down