Tuesday, April 2, 2013

The Chicago White Sox 2013 Preview/Drinking Game: MLB Overview, Season Overview, Acquisitions, and Offense!

Photo courtesy of whitesox.tumblr.com
Baseball is back! And after an opening day gem from new $32M man Chris Sale (7.2 IP, 7 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 104 pitches), and a 417 foot blast from new everyday catcher Tyler Flowers led to a 1-0 win for the Pale Hose, things are looking up on the South Side! Or are they? Well, that’s what we aim to find out. So come join us here at Ghostride the WHIP as we take a look at Manager Robin Ventura’s 2013 White Sox. Read on for my preview, predictions, and drinking fun! 

MLB Overview:

So what’s new in the MLB? First, as was evidenced on Opening Night, the Houston Astros are in the American League now! For those of you keeping track at home, this makes 15 AL teams and 15 NL teams. In years past, the 14 (AL) to 16 (NL) balance of teams led to an even breakdown of NL and AL matchups on any given day. This year, however, things will be different, as the uneven number of teams in each league will result in interleague matchups nearly every day. This means the “cross-town classic” or “BP cup” or whatever you’d like to call it between the Sox and Cubs will be trimmed down from two 3-game series to two 2-game series in 2013 and future years. While there are mixed views on this, I always loved the Cubs/Sox rivalry and will be sad to see those 3 game sets go.

The other bit of under the radar news is that the MLB begins testing for Human Growth Hormone (HGH) this year. Baseball got a (deservedly) bad rap in the late ‘90s/early 2000’s when Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and some other guy named Barry were pretty clearly using performance enhancing drugs. But lately, the MLB should be commended for increasing its drug-testing, as in-season HGH testing marks a big step in PED awareness. Last year, Melky Cabrera was having a great year for the San Francisco Giants and tested positive for testosterone, resulting in a 50 game ban. Keep an eye out for the effects of HGH testing, whether it’s more players getting suspensions or a decline in overall power numbers. (Decline in overall power numbers is also referred to as the “Adam Dunn,” but we’ll get to that later.)

Sox Season Overview:

Well now that we’ve covered the MLB as a whole, what’s new with the White Sox? First, long-time assistant GM Rick Hahn was promoted to GM, moving previous GM and famed wheeler/dealer Kenny Williams up to VP of Baseball Operations.  Hahn’s promotion gave fans a bit of optimism, as they hoped that Hahn, a bigger advocate of sabermetrics than Kenny, would rebuild the farm-system and make some smarter, more tactical moves, compared to the big (and lately, failed) headliners that defined Kenny’s regime. Hahn worked quickly, restructuring/resigning SP Jake Peavy to a 2 year, $29M contract, also resulting in his $4M buyout being paid out from 2016-2019. Next, Hahn went out and signed singles machine Jeff Keppinger to a 3 year, $12M contract to fill in the black hole of suck that was third base for the Sox in 2012. Finally, Hahn extended Chris Sale for 5 years and $32.5M, making him a White Sox potentially through the end of the 2019 season, and making me heavily consider investing in a Sale jersey. Oh yeah, and the Sox chose not to resign frenemy AJ Pierzynski, instead going with the younger but unproven Tyler Flowers as their everyday catcher. More on that later.

Elsewhere around the AL Central, the Tigers are still loaded, added Torii Hunter, extended Justin Verlander, and got Victor Martinez back from injury, and everyone and their mom thinks they will win the AL Central. The Royals sold the future in favor of the present by shipping mega-prospect Wil Myers to the Rays in exchange for kinda-ace James Shields and high-upside high-risk starter-turned-reliever-now-hopefully-he-can-start-again Wade Davis. The Indians have a scary lineup and defense and brutal pitching, and the Twins are just going to be bad. Sorry Joe Mauer, you still have great hair, but your team sucks. Most prognosticators peg the White Sox for an average year, but the White Sox just seem to have a knack for beating projections. Let’s see what all the hype (or lack thereof) is about!

Offseason Additions:

Jeff Keppinger- #7- 3B, 2B, and 1B- Throws Right, Bats Right
Connor Gillaspie- #12- 3B, 1B- Throws Right, Bats Left
Angel Sanchez- #5 (URIBE!)- SS, 2B- Throws Right, Bats Right
Hector Gimenez- #38- C- Throws Right, Bats Switch
Matt Lindstrom- #27- RP- Throws Right

The White Sox were relatively quiet in their offseason acquisitions, with Keppinger and Lindstrom being the only added pieces of value. Keppinger is slated to be the White Sox everyday 3B after posting a career high .325 batting average with the Rays in 2012. Keppinger is not going to hit for any power (41 career HR), is damn near impossible to strike out (173 career Ks, 179 career BB), and can provide you with positional flexibility if Gordon Beckham continues to crap the bed at the plate. Lindstrom is an insurance policy against Canadian Jesse Crain and his myriad of injuries, as Lindstrom has both closer and setup man experience. Lindstrom was 1-0 with a 2.68 ERA last year with 40 K in 47 innings with Baltimore and Arizona. He is a heavy groundballer and is a dark-horse candidate to take over closer duties should Addison Reed stumble. Gillaspie provides a left-handed bat off the bench and a defensive substitution for Paul Konerko at first base. Sanchez is your prototypical utility infielder who will spell Alexei Ramirez at SS or Gordon Beckham and 2B. Gimenez is a backup catcher… I got nothin’.

Drinking Game! - This is the part where I present a rule, and when that thing happens, you drink! Most of these rules will involve Sox announcer Ken “the Hawk” Harrelson who is both terrible and awesome and could honestly have a drinking game all to himself.

Drink When: any announcer mentions that Keppinger is hard to strike out, or he hits a single.

The Lineup:  (2012 Totals: AVG/OBP/SLG)

CF- Alejandro de Aza- #30- Bats Left, Throws Left- (.281/.349/.410)
Key 2012 Stat: 26/38 (68.4% success rate) on stolen bases

Don’t you dare call Lady Gaga’s name, Alejandro. Ale-ale-jandro provided a breath of fresh air to the leadoff spot in 2012, finally putting an end to the nightmares I used to have of Juan Pierre chopping grounders to the second baseman 3 times a game. The Dominican centerfielder was worth 2.3 WAR last season, providing literally average defense (exactly 0.0 UZR) and adding some pop (9 HR, 29 2B) to the top of the lineup. De Aza will need to stay healthy as a series of smaller, nagging injuries wore on him as the 2012 season went on, and you’d like to see that SB success rate up above 75% where it belongs. Ventura is hoping that de Aza’s speed and Keppinger’s contact skills will set the table for the big boppers further down the lineup.

Drink When: de Aza swipes a bag, as he is sure to lead the White Sox in this category in 2013.

3B- Jeff Keppinger- #7-Bats Right, Throws Right- (.325/.367/.439)
Key 2012 Stat: Triple slash line above represented 2nd best for career.

Keppinger wears his Sox high, and I like that about him. As discussed earlier, he is not going to strike out much (just 31K in 2012), and he’s going to smack a lot of singles. And honestly, this makes him a pretty great candidate for the #2 spot in the order, which he appears to have locked down. Keppinger hit close to .500 this spring and, surprise surprise, did so hitting a ton of singles. Last year the Sox trotted out crap 3B after crap 3B, and yes, that includes Kevin Youkilis and his 7 million tiny nagging injuries. The Sox hope that Keppinger’s contact game will mesh with de Aza’s speed and really help generate runs by means other than the long ball.

RF- Alex Rios- #51-Bats Right, Throws Right- (.304/.334/.516)
Key 2012 Stat: Worth 4.6 WAR in 2012.

Let’s talk more about that Key Stat. Rios accumulated 4.6 WAR in 2012. Good! In 2011, he was worth negative 1.7 WAR. Very bad! In 2010, 3.2 WAR. Good again! In 2010, 0.9 WAR. Not so good! In 2013, Sox fans hope that the curse of the odd numbered year ends and Alex represents the 4-5 WAR player that he has the tools to be. Rios plays a very solid right field (1.1 UZR in 2012), and in 2012 he hit 25 HR and stole 23 bases while only being caught 6 times. All the tools are there, including the prettiest right handed homerun swing in baseball. If the Sox have any chance at competing for a wild card spot this season, they are going to need another excellent season from #51.

Drink When: Alex hits a home run, and keep drinking until he’s done holding his pose.

DH- Adam Dunn- #32- Bats Left, Throws Right- (.204/.333/.468)
Key 2012 Stat: 222 K.

Sighhhhhhhhhhhh. When Kenny Williams signed Big Donkey in 2011 after the departure of Jim Thome, all signs were positive. The general thought was, yeah, he strikes out a ton, and he’s not going to hit much more than .250, but he’s a lock for 40 HR and 100 RBI and a billion walks as well. And then we all know what happened, as 2011 was one of the worst offensive seasons of any player. EVER. 2012 was better, but I mean, he also struck out 222 times and only hit .204. People are starting to wonder, like Jim Margalus at South Side Sox (a great Sox blog), if Dunn’s bat speed has diminished to the point of no return. Sure, Dunn hit 41 HR last year, poked in 96 RBI, and still had an On-Base percentage .129 higher than his average, but simply put, if Dunn isn’t better in 2013, he should be moved down in the lineup to make room for some of the Sox more promising hitters.

Drink When: Adam strikes out. For as happy as a drinking celebration as we have for Alex, this one is equally sad.

1B- Paul Konerko- #14- Bats Right, Throws Right- (.298/.371/.486)- Team Captain
Key 2012 Stat: 75 RBI.

Paulie Walnuts started out 2012 on a torrid pace, carrying a batting average of .399 through the end of May. From that point forward, the Captain’s performance declined as a floating bone particle between his left hand and wrist nagged at him and completely sapped his power. Damn floating bone particle. After offseason surgery to flush this particle out, Paul hopes to see an increase in power and run production in what could be his last season on the South Side. With AJ’s offseason departure, Paulie is the final Sox player on the roster from the 2005 World Series team.

Drink When: Paulie hits a single that would have been a double for 95% of other players in baseball. This happens and happens a lot.

LF- Dayan Viciedo- #24- Bats Right, Throws Right- (.255/.300/.444)
Key 2012 Stat: 25 HR in first full MLB season

“Jackin’ Dayan” or “The Tank” or “Tanks” as Hawk likes to call him, had an up and down rookie season. The 24 year-old Cuban showed flashes of his raw power on home runs like this, a 3-run bomb in New York down 2 runs in the 9th. But in 2012 he was below average in left at best, he struck out too much, and although his eye improved, as the saying about Cuban players goes, “You don’t walk off the island.” Viciedo is my key to 2013. Konerko, Dunn, and Rios are known entities at this point, but Viciedo is the wild card. All the skills are there, and if Viciedo can shorten up his swing and decrease his platoon splits (.350 avg vs LHP, .225 (barf) avg vs RHP), while seeing a natural increase in power, he has the ability to carry the Sox for extended periods of time. The White Sox are going to need several things to break right for them to compete for a wild-card in 2013, and Viciedo’s improvement is a key driver.

Drink When: Hawk calls him Tank, or even better, Tanks.

SS- Alexei Ramirez- #10- Bats Right, Throws Right- (.267/.285/.364)
Key 2012 Stat- 9 HR.

After averaging over 17 HR per year over his first four MLB seasons, The Cuban Missile had a bit of a power outage in 2012. Alexei did, however, steal 20 bases in 2012 and continues to play some of the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball. The double play combo of Gordon Beckham and Alexei can really throw some leather, but a bump back to Alexei’s career average line of (.276/.316/.410) and 15 HRs would certainly be welcome on the South Side in 2013.

Drink When: Alexei makes a web gem in the field at SS. He’s pretty awesome on D.

C- Tyler Flowers- #17- Bats Right, Throws Right- (.213/.296/.412- only 153 PAs)
Key 2012 Stat: Let’s start with this. Notice Soriano’s reaction to that home run. Flowers hit it so far he didn’t even take a step. And that’s the thing about T-Flo- dude has mad power.

In 2012, AJ Pierzynski was the Sox everyday catcher and set career highs in his age 35 season in HR (27) and RBI (77) while hitting .278/.326/.501. He also couldn’t throw out a base runner to save his life and remember how he is a giant d-bag? I loved AJ for his time in Chicago, but re-signing him to a new deal based on his 2012 performance would have been ludicrous, and personally I believe Hahn made the right choice. With AJ’s departure steps in Tyler Flowers, the last remaining, and only useful, piece of the Javier Vazquez trade. Tyler was a big offensive prospect coming up through the minors, with a propensity for smashing left handed pitchers. However, he also flaunted one of the biggest swinging strike rates in baseball, and his lack of plate appearances in 2012 has left a lot of Sox fans wondering who T-Flo really is. I think he’s a guy who is going to hit .230 with 20 HR, handle a pitching staff, and actually throw runners out. Plus, I also think you get some upside, something that a 36 year old catcher is probably not going to provide. I have very high hopes for Tyler this year, but being “the guy who replaced AJ” is not a desirable task. Good luck kid.

Drink When: There’s a strike-em-out throw-em-out, either with T-Flo catching OR batting.

2B- Gordon Beckham- #15- Bats Right, Throws Right- (.234/.296/.371)
Key 2012 Stat: 16 HR, 60 RBI

Gordon Beckham has it all. He’s got a great glove (1.5 fielding runs above average based on UZR). He’s got a smoking hot, TV star fiancĂ©. He’s got really f*cking great hair. I mean, just look at that swoop! So what more could you want for the man who has it all? Oh wait, what’s that you say? You have to hit the ball to be good at baseball. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh shitttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt.

Simply put, Gordon has been in a 3 year slump at the dish, which pundits may argue means he’s just not that good. And really, that’s hard to argue. Beckham, once thought to be the face of the franchise, has become a glove-only 2B who people are just hoping will hit over .250. Sure, the 16 HR and 60 RBI are nice from the 9 hole, but 89 K compared to only 40 BB in 2012 is gross. Put another notch on the “if the White Sox have any chance” post, because if the Sox do have any chance, they need more from Bacon. Beckham is energetic, young, has some pop, and is very easy to root for. I hope he figures it out this year.

Drink When: Beckham changes his batting stance or talks about how he’s seeing the ball better. It should happen at least 35 times this season.

Well that wraps up the offense. Look for the pitchers overview and predictions later this afternoon, and go Sox!


4 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's' interesting that baseball gets a bad rap for drugs when if it weren't for steroid filled HR races in the late 90's the sport may have died. P.S. Sammy Sosa's skin

      Delete
  2. Maybe it's familiarity bias, but I feel like this team could be a sleeper for a wild card spot. Yes, their lineup is aging. Yes, they have zero depth in their rotation. But IF Danks returns fully healthy and IF Gavin Floyd can keep his ERA in the low 4s and IF Dayan Viciedo continues his upward projection and IF Paul Konerko doesn't find the edge of that cliff, they have a shot. There are four teams CLEARLY ahead of them in talent in the AL - Detroit in their own division, Anaheim & Texas out West, Toronto in the East. Then there's the perennial sleeper Tampa Bay to challenge for that last Wild Card spot. Tampa has the better pitching, but this White Sox lineup can go toe-to-toe with any of the non-juggernaut teams in the AL. All I'm saying is this season may not be as miserable for Chicago baseball as the prickly old media make it out to be. But I'm still rooting for the Indians.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I certainly agree that there is sleeper potential. It just seems like there are so many "Ifs" that have to go right. Will Dunn and/or Beckham and/or Ramirez really contribute offensively? What can we expect from Flowers? Will Konerko continue to defy Father Time? Is Dayan Viciedo the offensive monster we really hope he is? And these question marks don't even hit the pitching side. This team is tough to predict, with a potential for 90 wins, as well as downside potential of 70-75 if things break bad.

      Delete