Love the Bomb Part IV: Dump Demp

Starting pitching is a much stickier issue for the organization than the development of the everyday lineup. The minors don't have many arms with top-of-the-rotation stuff, while the majors are heavy on back of the rotation guys who have mixed results so far in this pressureless 2012 Cubs season. Still, each of the five starters on the Opening Day staff has had at least one quality outing and the top three of Dempster, Garza and Samardzija has been fantastic with an ERA of 2.77 over 12 starts. The Cubs have little to show for that--just 4 wins for those top three and 8 wins for the starters overall--due to a miserable bullpen (-0.3 WAR) and some dreadful defense (second-worst RZR or "out rate" in the league).

I think this rotation has a few pieces that can be built around for future years. Unless Garza can net the Cubs multiple four-star prospects, it's not worth dumping someone who can be a very good #2 starter on a contending team. He's one of the few always-positive guys in the clubhouse and although zany as ever in the dugout, has been calm and collected thus far on the mound. Samardzija has potential as a #3 guy if he can continue to locate his breaking stuff and avoid serving up gopher balls as he had a tendency to do over his first couple seasons out of the 'pen. Dempster also has a significant value for this club, though at 35 on Thursday and entering free agency this fall it's more on the trade market than on the mound.


Everyone loves Ryan Dempster. By all accounts, he's a great clubhouse presence for a young team and appears to have extended his prime with those mid-career bullpen seasons. However, even with his delayed decline he won't be part of a contender here in Chicago. The Cubs can always give him a chance to return in the offseason to take a spot at the back end of future rotations, as he has set down roots in Chicago and has family reasons to remain here long term.

Of course he immediately hit the 15-day DL with a quadriceps strain after 20 nearly flawless innings this season. However, if Dempster is able to come off his injury with the same form he showed in those three starts, he should be prime trade bait for the pitching-hungry giants by mid-summer. Dempster has the personality to fit in with any contender and contribute immediately at the middle of a strong rotation. Teams like Detroit, Arizona, and New York are already on the prowl for available arms and may be willing to part with a few high-ceiling guys to acquire Dempster.

Proposal: Ryan Dempster and Reed Johnson to Arizona, LHP David Holmberg and OF Keon Broxton to Cubs

Diamondbacks LHP David Holmberg

The Diamondbacks system is loaded with pitching depth. Beyond the untouchable trio of Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, and Archie Bradley, there are four more pitchers amongst their top ten prospects and another five between #11 and #20. A lot of these arms are too young to help the team now, but Arizona would be more than willing to give up some of their depth to acquire a veteran arm with playoff experience like Dempster. The Cubs should shoot for (and likely miss on) the middle of that top-10 list, but should be happy to settle on David Holmberg. Holmberg's a lefty without the #1 starter ceiling of other prospects in Arizona but has a chance to be an cost-controlled mid-rotation lefty for the Cubs by 2013. The Cubs also give the Diamondbacks the infinitely scrappy Reed Johnson to fill the open fourth OF spot in order to take a flyer on toolsy but unproductive-to-date former third-rounder Keon Broxton.

RHP Ryan Dempster - 2011 (MLB Cubs) - 34 starts, 202.1 IP, 191 K, 1.448 WHIP
OF Reed Johnson - 2011 (MLB Cubs) - 266 PA, .309 BA, .816 OPS, 1.3 WAR
LHP - David Holmberg - 6'4" 219 lbs - 2011 (A-A+) - 27 starts, 154.1 IP, 157 K, 1.205 WHIP
CF Keon Broxton - 6'3" 205 lbs - 2011 (A-A+) - .248 BA, 7 HR, 33 SB, .980 Fdg %

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Series

Introduction

Part I: Sell on Soto

Part II: Flip the Fonz

Part III: Move Marmol

Part IV: Dump Demp

Conclusion