Cubs Season Preview Part II - Bullpen

Our Cubs preview moves on to the back end of the staff today, working through the delicate bullpen crew. I'll sift through those who will start out the season on the big league club and also touch on those who may make their way to the third base line at some point this season. To start the season, Sveum has the following to work with:

Closer - Carlos Marmol
Set-up - Kerry Wood
LOOGY - James Russell
Middle Relief - Rafael Dolis, 2 of Castillo, Corpas, and Camp
Long Relief - Rodrigo Lopez



Carlos Marmol - Another year of trials and tribulations with Chuck. After ten blown saves in 2011 and a miserable 5.91 ERA in the second half, a lithe Marmol returns to Wrigley less fifteen pounds. He never seemed to have any problems hitting the mid-90s on the gun or dropping the 12-to-6 slider at around 170 lbs. earlier in his career He'll look to add some energy and endurance at the lower weight as the Cubs will likely need him more than ever with a below-average offense. Reports from Spring Training have Marmol reverting back to a two-pitch slider/fastball focus that he had balanced successfully through 2010 (98% of pitches during 2010 campaign) vs. the cutter and changeup efforts that left his control in question most of last year. I'll guess he brings back the league's most imposing slide-piece to major improvements in 2012, hitting 38 saves before going into another contract year in 2013.

Kerry Wood - Maybe not in the top tier of setup men of baseball anymore, Wood still provides the Cubs with a strong option to shut down opponents in the 8th inning. His fastball still hits 95 but he'll need to make-up a bigger differential with his slider than the 4mph he averaged last season (11mph as a starter and 6+ the previous two seasons in bullpen roles). The curve has also faded from his repertoire over the last few campaigns and adding the a third pitch may go a long way in recovering a sense of confusion from opposing hitters. As always, he'll provide a constant in the clubhouse and someone for the rest of the inexperienced bullpen to go to throughout the year.

James Russell - It's hard to argue against the Sean Marshall trade, as it brought back a potential future 4th OF in Dave Sappelt and a still-young potential mid-rotation starter in Travis Wood. However, the dropoff from Marshall to Russell will be noticed this season. After not measuring up to the average replacement player the last two seasons (WAR of -0.4 and -0.2), Russell will need to prove his slider is an out pitch as his fastball is not much to fear at 88mph. He's still young at 26 and will be given a long leash to improve as there's not much there lefty-wise behind him. However, he's got a long shadow escape from in Marshall's old role and will need to show considerable improvements in his off-speed pitches to make it as the main LOOGY.

Middle Relievers - The corp of Rafael Dolis, Manny Corpas, and Shawn Camp needs to eat innings. Dolis had strong spring numbers and showed some potential last September as a late season callup after never appearing in AAA. He has the standard fastball, curve, slide in his bag, though the fastball reaches 96+. Dolis just turned 24 and may show some flashes of a future closer this season if he can keep the zip on his fastball throughout an entire season. Corpas, a former Rockies closer, and Camp, a former Blue Jay picked up off the scrap heap in mid-March, are still competing with Lendy Castillo for the final bullpen spot as of Monday night. Corpas missed all of 2011 rehabbing from Tommy John surgey while Camp has consistently delivered 60+ innings for Toronto over the last three seasons, so I'm throwing out a complete guess that Camp will contribute more to this team, especially early on in the season.

Long Reliever - I'm fine with the decision to send Wells down to Iowa. Wells is the first call-up if Samardzija fails miserably in his first three starts or a Cashner-esque bug strikes Volstad by his first start against the Brewers next week. He needs to stay stretched out in that case and keeping him away from Wrigleyville can't hurt - Des Moines doesn't have quite the Clark bar scene. Lopez can fill in should a few rough starts come from the starters early on, but he's really just there to eat innings. As I said last night, if Lopez gets over 100 innings this year, the Cubs are in trouble.

Other options - Converted infielder Lendy Castillo got picked up in the Rule 5 draft after not having pitched above single-A and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubs try to trade some AAA depth back to Philly to keep him in the system. He had a decent spring for not having pitched above A-ball in the past, including striking out the side against the Giants March 16th. He doesn't turn 23 until next week and could be a long term solution towards the backend of the bullpen with some seasoning at Iowa. The long relief corps should be stretched out as Wells, Travis Wood, Casey Coleman and Jay Jackson should make up the top of the rotation in Des Moines. Wood clearly has some upside after ending 2010 as a straight to the majors prospect out of Arizona State and weathering a disappointing 2011 (and 2012 Spring Training). He has potential to move into the bottom of this Cubs rotation for years if he can return to form. Other fillers including John Gaub, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Scott Maine, Esmailin Caridad and Jeff Beliveau will remain familiar to Cub fans' ears this season should any of the current options fail in their early opportunities.

The Cubs have also been rumored to be looking for bullpen help late this spring, though most teams are at this point. It would be nice to pick up another lefty as the inexperienced Russell doesn't give the strongest opinion after a myriad of rough outings the previous two years. However, if there's one thing this bullpen has, it's depth of nearly interchangeable arms that Hoyer, Sveum, and new pitching coach Chris Bosio have to move back and forth down I-80 with what should be a veteran Iowa staff this season.

The Four-Part Cubs Season Preview

Part I - Rotation

Part II - Bullpen

Part III - Starting Lineup

Part IV - Bench