Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Through The Muck & The Mire: 2013 Cubs Preview - 2012 Review & 2013 Rotation


Year One of the Theo Era went... well, about as planned. A cold April (8-15) led to a quick dump of Marlon Byrd on the hapless Red Sox. May followed with the end of the Blake DeWitt er... Kerry Wood era, leading to further roster instability and a widening gap in the standings. By the end of June, the Cubs were 15 games out and in full sell-off mode. Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, and Geovany Soto netted a couple mid-level prospects alongside lottery ticket Arodys Vizcaino at the trade deadline, while the useful Jeff Baker headed out the door soon after. This made room for September callups: Welington Castillo (promising), Brett Jackson (poor), Josh Vitters (worse), and the pitchers (non-existent). The Cubs hit the 101-loss mark to close the season, leaving questions aplenty entering the offseason.



Turnover remained the theme through the winter, with new additions coming for the long term (4 years, $52M for Edwin Jackson) but mostly for the short term (two years for Scott Hairston & Carlos Villanueva, one year for Nate Schierholtz & Scott Baker). Quadruple-A-turned-All-Star-turned-Japanese-castoff Bryan LaHair was spun off to the Land of the Rising Sun while the Prince of Hustle Tony Campana somehow returned two promising teenagers from the desert. The Cubs also strengthened their position in the international market, bringing in experienced NPB hurler Kyuji Fujikawa to challenge Carlos Marmol and adding low-cost pitchers from Korea and Latin America to an already long line of foreign prospects in the system.


The 2013 Cubs are still very much a work in progress. All the platoons, one-year deals, and impending losses will lend themselves to another year of trial-and-error from Sveum and the front office. The ensuing turnover does not encourage me to roll through the roster player-by-player. Rather, I'll touch on the various units, showing comparisons to a representative groups from the Hendry era as well as a very hopeful 2016 roster. As usual, take these prospects with a grain of salt... and a whole lot of Old Style.

Rotation
Opening Day lineup: Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva
Coming reinforcements: Matt Garza, Brooks Raley
Hendry-era comparison: 2007 - Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Marshall
Future Hopes (with ETA for prospects): Samardzija, Arodys Vizcaino (2013), Jackson, Mark Appel/Jonathan Gray (2015/2016), Pierce Johnson (2015)

This staff has some considerable upside. Samardzija is a big, still-unproven fireballer with a developing arsenal of off-speed pitches and the potential to make a claim as a top-of-the-rotation starter for years to come - much like an early-career Zambrano. Because of his time on the gridiron, Samardzija's arm has the mileage of a 24- or 25-year-old rather than ten years of minor league wear his fellow 28-year-olds have on theirs. The argument against Samardzija thus far is that conservative Cubs management hasn't tested him late into games. If yesterday's eight-inning, two-hit, 0.4 WAR-generating gem was any indication, Samardzija out to prove his doubters wrong and earn a hefty paycheck this season.

Edwin Jackson came up through the Dodgers system to considerable acclaim, but has never been able to match his talent to consistent performance. Just as Ted Lilly bounced from team to team in his 20s, Jackson joins the Cubs as his eighth team in six seasons. Jackson is a power pitcher capable of dominant starts but mind-numbing inconsistency. The Cubs are betting that a long-term contract and experience bouncing from contender to contender yields a solid mid-rotation pitcher for a run-up to contention of their own over the next four years.

Wood, Feldman and Villanueva all have shots to stick in the rotation for the remainder of the season--or be relegated to AAA or, worse, middle relief by the time Garza returns in early May. Wood is the most talented of the trio, having tossed 102 innings of 3.4 FIP ball for the 2010 Reds before returning to slightly-above-replacement-level form the last two years. He won't strike many out (6.8 K/9) and hasn't been able to keep the ball on the ground (32% ground ball rate), so I wouldn't be stunned to see him back in Iowa by mid-May. Still, Feldman and Villanueva are scrap-heap shots in the dark pulled from the long relief corps of better teams. If either of them net the Cubs a B-level prospect in July, I'd be thoroughly surprised.

Ultimately, Garza determines the success of this staff in 2013. Not so much in that he grabs 4-5 WAR for the 2013 Cubs, but rather that he returns to eight weeks of success and a Mike Olt-esque return from a contender. I'm staunchly in sell mode on Garza, as his solid sub-4 ERAs have been aided by strong defenses from the Rays and 2012 Cubs (yes, really). A career league-average FIP (97 FIP+) is not worthy of an ace's $15M+ per annum salary. I'd prefer the Cubs wrap his arm up in nice six-inning starts before the late summer heat broils Wrigley pitching and sell high. Gotta love his enthusiasm, but the future calls.

And the future is currently flip-flopping across campus to an economics course, ticking through spring semester as an ace at his respective college. One of Mark Appel (Stanford) or Jonathan Gray (Oklahoma) will likely go #1 in June's draft to former nemesis Houston. That leaves draftnik Tim Wilken to pick the other as the immediate top pitching prospect in the Cubs' system.

He will be expected to rise quickly through the system, especially if "he" is Mark Appel. Appel stood strong in his financial demands after the Pirates took him eighth in last year's draft. He won't have the leverage of returning to school this year, but he's worth paying anyways. Appel has elite stuff and and has been the most polished pitcher in college baseball for two straight seasons. He has, however, been a workhorse this year, going the distance in 3 of his last 6. Whether it's the first name, long amateur outings, brainy California private university, or high dollar demands, there's a slight inclination to bring up Mark Prior when thinking of Appel.

Which leaves Jonathan Gray, a fringe first rounder at the start of this season who is blowing Big 12 hitters away with a triple-digit fastball and wrecking-ball slider this spring. A true hoss at 6'4", 240, Gray brings to mind the other half of the previous decade's dynamic duo: Kerry Wood. Gray is expected to have lesser salary demands than Appel, freeing up the front office to allocate more of their draft budget to overslot players in later rounds. Either way, Appel or Gray will immediately face high expectations to become the next young ace of the Cubs' staff.

Through The Muck & The Mire - 2013 Cubs Preview
Part 1: 2012, Offseason, and Rotation

1 comment:

  1. I really like the Jackson signing, and so far so good with Samardzija. You could probably roll out a decent rotation when Garza returns, but to what ends? I agree, sell as high on Garza as possible and draft a stud. Oh and also, Travis Wood is hot water trash.

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