With under 96 hours until the first pitch of the 2012 Cubs season, let me take a couple uneducated stabs at where I think this season starts, ends up, and leads to in the ever-brighter future.
Vegas and national media over/unders have the Cubs pegged at 74ish wins, which is a much brighter perspective than I expected to start the year. I have the Cubs at 73, which I think is entirely within the Cubs' boundaries as they are currently constructed. With a couple additions, the Cubs could stretch it to 82 or 83 wins, but I'm not sure Theo's willing to give up much for a far-fetched run at a somewhat open division race. If the current rotation experiments crap out and Rodrigo Lopez takes a spot by June, well, then a 67 win season is not out of the question.
Let's take a quick look at the four pieces of the roster - rotation, bullpen, starting eight, bench. I'll give some brief thoughts on where each player is at this point of his career and what he should be contributing to this Cubs team, but also take deeper dives into key contributors throughout the week as we prepare for the opener.
Rotation:
Ryan Dempster - Somewhat surprising he got the Opening Day nod from the new regime, though this should be his last shot at starting the first game from this team. He's ideally a solid #3 guy at this point in his career, but will be called on for 200+ IP for the fifth consecutive season on this young staff. The hope would be to stay healthy, keep the ERA around 4.00, and prove that he's worthy of another multi-year deal. He's become known as a great clubhouse guy since coming over to the Cubs in 2004, but if he's not able to show those bullpen days added a couple years to his career, he may need to take a Wood-esque hometown discount to stick around for another one-year deal next season.
Matt Garza - I don't think there's much question that Garza is, if not the best pitcher on the staff, at least the one with the most talent. Garza can make a couple of things happen for the Cubs this year: Prove he's a #1/#2 type starter on a future contender, either with the Cubs as they build towards the future and sign him to a long-term extension or on a current contender to pull a haul back worthy of what the Cubs gave up for him. He's got the talent to be an ace and I think he has a shot at a sub-3.50 ERA should his off-speed pitches keep improving (just 38% four-seamers last year vs. 66% career prior) and his defense improving (so your saying there's a chance...). It should be an interesting season to understand how Garza and his Eternal Sunshine of the Cubs' Dugout fits into Theo and Jed's plans.
Jeff Samardzija - Well, his time has come. I can't say much on what improvements he can make from prior seasons, as this is really the first anyone has seen him as a starter since his low-minors days. The Cubs threw a ton of money at him as a draft pick because of his size and stuff at ND and this is the make or break year to see whether he'll be a middle of the rotation starter or a setup guy in the future. He's had a solid spring training outside of his last start and I believe the choice to give him a spot over Wells was entirely logical as the potential upside The Shark could provide the Cubs is upwards of anyone on the 25-man roster not named Garza or Castro.
Chris Volstad - He's 25 years old with 3 1/2 major league seasons under his belt already, including an impressive 2008 debut (at 21) with an ERA of 2.88 (ERA+ of 151) over 84 innings. At 6'8", 230 lbs. he has a body that will be able to, at the very least, eat 160 innings at the 4-spot in this rotation.had the lowest 2011 walk rate among Cubs starters and has the potential to far improve his already solid FIP (2012 - 4.32) than he did (4.32) if he can knock down his wildly outrageous HR/FB rate (15.5%).
Paul Maholm - The oft-maligned former Pirate actually impressed vs. the Cubs last year, coming out with a sub-2.00 ERA in four starts. He capitalized on a lucky .286 BABIP last season to get an improved role (end of Cubs' rotation vs. mid-Pirates rotation improved? Well, guess that's for you to judge) here in 2012. Will he be able to hold the fifth spot? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt because the next options in the rotation are...
Rotation - Next in line
Randy Wells - Yeah, he got sent down to Iowa. Yeah, it was rightly deserved. Yeah, it appears 2010 was a bit of a mirage. Can Wells stop going to Sluggers the night before starts and turn into a quality end of the rotation starter for this team or will he become a castoff pitching middle relief for the Athletics next year? It seems like it's up to Randy to decide that. The only one standing in the way is...
Rodrigo Lopez - Bill James has Mr. Lopez pitching 132 innings this year. If Lopez hits 120, the Cubs won't get to 70 wins. Any takers?
The Four-Part Cubs Season Preview
Part I - Rotation
The cubs season as far as the rotation goes depends on what shark does. Randy wells was seen drunk at durkins Sunday night
ReplyDeleteI completley agree with your analysis on Samardzija ... he is the difference between 73 wins and more like 78 if things broke perfect
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