The starting lineup - responsible for two-thirds of the game. Yes, the pitching staff leads off each play, but when they don't have a defense behind them (2011 Cubs dead last in majors for fielding %) or an offense generating run support (Cubs 19th in majors in runs scored), a season can only go so far.
The reconstructed Cubs lineup will be tasked with improvements in three key areas in 2012:
- Defense - Again, the 2011 Cubs finished last in the majors in fielding percentage, leading MLB in errors and finishing last in the NL with the lowest defensive efficiency (outs as a percent of balls in play). Improvements have been made at third base (Ian Stewart vs. a declining Aramis Ramirez), right field (DeJesus career average dWAR ~1 win/season vs. Fukudome ~0.4 wins and net zero for Colvin), and backup catcher (how did Koyie Hill stay on this team for the last three years?). However, massive improvements in the middle infield (Castro) will need to be made in order for the team defense to make any noticeable improvement.
- On-base percentage - The Cubs finished low-middle of the pack in the majors last year in overall OBP (.314 vs. league average of .322). However, they were second to last in the majors in walks (only the lowly Astros trailed). Free swingers like Colvin, Pena, and Soriano don't help with that, but this is a stat especially valued now by the new regime and the "value" lineup the Cubs have put in place will need to capitalize on every chance they get to make it on base.
- Baserunning - The Cubs were third to last in the majors in steals, something they haven't consistently seen since the failed Juan Pierre experiment of 2006 (58 steals but led league with 20 caught stealing). While the major league team is not big at this point on speed guys, the minors have some semblance of baserunning in Brett Jackson, Matt Szczur, and The Little Campana That Could. Manufacturing runs with smart baserunning will be needed and now that basecloggers A-Ram and Pena are gone, Sveum will be called on to move runners along the basepaths in many-a-game.
- RF - David DeJesus - 0.8 2011 Offensive WAR / -0.2 2011 Defensive WAR - DeJesus struggled, plain and simple, last year for the Athletics. He was signed to a one-year trial and expected to showcase his offensive a defensive prowess across all three outfield spots in Oakland. That didn't happen. As shown above, DeJesus regressed from his Royals days to a .240 average and 93 OPS+. He had been averaging a 2.4 oWAR and 1.1 dWAR over the previous six seasons in Kansas City, so Epstein took a chance that escaping the hellhole of Oakland will return DeJesus to a productive major league player. DeJesus is now 32 and won't be counted on for middle of the lineup production (healthy seasons of 70+ RBIs while playing lower in the order in Kansas City), but rather to get on base more in line with his .356 career line. He's much more of a 2-hitter than a leadoff guy, but with no homegrown solutions (yet), Theo and Jed were forced to look externally rather than using Castro or Soriano incorrectly at the top of the order.
- 2B - Darwin Barney - 0.9 oWAR / 0.1 dWAR - The classic tale-of-two-halves player last season, the Cubs will look to Barney for more consistency this year in his second full season in the majors. Never one to be confused with a power hitter or a defensive whiz, Barney needs to minimize his mistakes (in order to, in all honesty, balance out those of his double play partner) and get on-base nearer to his 2011 first half clip of .331 than the second half dropoff of .286. I'm not sure he's the long-term solution at second with his lack of power and the potential need to find Castro a new defensive role, but he'll provide some positives from the two-spot along with likely platoon partner Jeff Baker.
- SS - Starlin Castro - 3.8 oWAR / -1.6 dWAR - He hit .307 with a .773 OPS while garnering All-Star recognition and MVP votes (REALLY!?!?, from whom?) as a 21-year-old. Yeah, he's got potential, but does he have a position? The Cubs will at least give him another season to work out his relationship with fans in the first base side club box seats, hoping that he can at least become a serviceable shortstop and provide some incredible offensive numbers from the position rather than diminish his value as a 2B or corner outfielder. All numbers point to his power potential breaking through once he fills out, so I could see him becoming a 20/20 guy (22 steals last year) within the next two seasons. As it stands, I'll throw out a lofty goal of .315/20/90 for the Pimp King of Michigan Avenue, likely hitting more towards the creamy middle of .305/15/80. That'll be enough to project an offseason image of long-term upswing from pundits and a sexy smile on all comers in River North.
- 1B - Bryan LaHair - 0.4 oWAR / -0.2 dWAR (14 MLB games) - Mr. AAAA himself, he of 219 career plate appearances including 150 as a 2008 Seattle Mariner, will be counted on to be the stopgap solution while Anthony Rizzo reacclimates himself with real baseball in Des Moines after a stop in Padreland last year. He's clearly got some pop after going for .338/38/109 at Iowa last year (1.070 OPS - ZOMG!!!) but hasn't translated that swing to the majors in two short stints. LaHair's defense at first is passable and he's even got some versatility to move out to the corner outfield spots should his power potential need to cover up a one Mr. Campana in pinch-hitting spots late in games. I think he does well enough to start until late June at which point Rizzo gets called up and LaHair takes his rightful spot as a sweet-hitting fill-in/utility guy for the remainder of the season. What I'm really saying is I think he'll be better than Micah Hoffpauir.
- LF - Alfonso Soriano - 0.6 oWAR / 0.7 dWAR - Maybe Soriano deserves to be in the 4-hole as this lineup is currently constructed. However, I think Sveum foresees Rizzo taking that spot in the future and does not want to bump around Sori after the infamous Lead Off Debacle of 2010. The Fonz is still locked up through 2014 pending any of the trade rumors actually coming to fruition. This means management will have to better determine how Soriano fits into this Cubs roster... which is not that difficult to figure out. He will get you a .250 average with virtually no walks, need eighth inning replacements for about 50% of games played and knock about 25 dingers out with a picture-perfect swing that makes you question where the hell that's been for the last fifteen at-bats. Amazingly, Soriano had a positive dWAR last year for the first time since season 1 with the Cubs in 2007. His defense really isn't that terrible beyond a boneheaded play or two a month and the whining about his play would be quieted if he was making somewhere in the ballpark of $10-12M per year. However, he's not and he's holding back our shot at trying out future MVP Brett Jackson so let's take a let's toss this one on Hendry's head, chalk it up to the build up of that failed 2008 dream and just enjoy Sori's purrty smile while he's still in Cubbie blue.
- 3B - Ian Stewart - -1.0 oWAR / -0.2 dWAR - If you haven't yet gotten the sense that the Cubs aren't a contender, this is the spot we drop off into the oblivion of sub-.500 baseball. It was time for Aramis Ramirez to leave town. His bat, although stunningly great last year, is destined for a swift decline in Milwaukee. His defensive acumen, while never Rolen-esque, has gradually waned to below-replacement over the past five seasons. Plus he was getting snarky with the media and if there's one thing the egotistic journalists of the Windy City can't stand, it's getting their own sneering contempt dished right back at them. So off goes the somehow-tradeable Tyler Colvin to the Rockies in exchange for the reclamation project of Ian Stewart. Fair trade, equivalent trade, just not a winnable trade. I don't think either of these gentlemen will be contributing significantly beyond filling a hole in the lineup for the upcoming season. Stewart's career line of .236 with an OPS of 89 does little to satisfy Cubs fans' thirst (and we are plenty thirsty) for another star hitter at the hot corner after the best turn there since Santo. We'll have to survive with Stewart, who Theo hopes can play replacement-level defense while returning to previous power numbers near 20/70.
- CF - Marlon Byrd - 1.5 oWAR / 0.2 dWAR - Rumors continue to swirl in the Lakeview winds about interest in Byrd around the league. The Cubs are supposedly willing to cover some of his remaining salary to get back prospects with potential, to which I am not entirely opposed. The better plan of action in my opinion would be to hold Byrd at least until Dreamboat Brett can be called up from Iowa in early June. Marlon will have done a sufficient job at that point impressing scouts with his hustle and optimism and can bring back a load of sabermetric all-stars back to Theo's rebuilding project. That way, Cubs fans don't have to sit through a cold, wet April (regardless of the weather) with Joe Mather and Tony Campana starting in CF. As of now, it looks like Byrd will be sprinting out to the bleacher bums on Opening Day and you can expect the same old Marlon. His power numbers are declining but he's still able to put up a .285/10/50 line and play solid defense. He's just worth more in potential future upside than he is to this organization right now.
- C - Geovany Soto - 1.7 oWAR / 0.1 dWAR - After an outstanding rookie season in 2008 (.868 OPS!), Soto smoked, ate, and drank his way out of a follow-up campaign in 2009. This left Cubs fans to ponder what Soto's future may be. Is his power tool worth enough to reward him with a major contract? Would he be a long-term answer behind the plate? Is the better catcher waiting in Iowa under the pseudonym (it has to be a pseudonym, right?) Welington? The correct answer to that last one per Spring Training is a resounding no. Soto again goes into another even numbered year ready to re-surprise the league with Top 6 catcher numbers after another up-and-down odd year in 2011 (OPS+ since rookie year: '08 118, '09 80, '10 135, '11 96). He clearly has the talent to succeed for the Cubs and be an above-average piece at the catcher position. If Soto can maintain his health and catch a tailwind with his bat early in the season, we could see another .280/20/75 season in 2012, pending a potential move up the order as the youngsters get a shot by late summer. At just 29, Soto can make his role on this club more clear this year and have a chance to be one of the few holdovers from the Hendry era to move forward as part of the rebuilding process.
The Four-Part Cubs Season Preview
Part III - Starting Lineup
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