Love the Bomb Part IV: Dump Demp

Starting pitching is a much stickier issue for the organization than the development of the everyday lineup. The minors don't have many arms with top-of-the-rotation stuff, while the majors are heavy on back of the rotation guys who have mixed results so far in this pressureless 2012 Cubs season. Still, each of the five starters on the Opening Day staff has had at least one quality outing and the top three of Dempster, Garza and Samardzija has been fantastic with an ERA of 2.77 over 12 starts. The Cubs have little to show for that--just 4 wins for those top three and 8 wins for the starters overall--due to a miserable bullpen (-0.3 WAR) and some dreadful defense (second-worst RZR or "out rate" in the league).

I think this rotation has a few pieces that can be built around for future years. Unless Garza can net the Cubs multiple four-star prospects, it's not worth dumping someone who can be a very good #2 starter on a contending team. He's one of the few always-positive guys in the clubhouse and although zany as ever in the dugout, has been calm and collected thus far on the mound. Samardzija has potential as a #3 guy if he can continue to locate his breaking stuff and avoid serving up gopher balls as he had a tendency to do over his first couple seasons out of the 'pen. Dempster also has a significant value for this club, though at 35 on Thursday and entering free agency this fall it's more on the trade market than on the mound.

Love The Bomb Part III: Move Marmol

Closers generally come and go. One only need go so far as Des Moines to find the aptly-named Manny Corpas, who has floated around the minor leagues after being cut just three seasons after a late-season run as closer of the pennant-winning Rockies. Marmol has lost control of his slider and become a below-average closer. It won't take too much more for Sveum to demote him below the surprisingly strong James Russell or closer-of-the-future Rafael Dolis.

What if, instead, the Cubs struggle through the pain of a few more rough outings, wait for Carlos to regain his patented slider, and dump him on an unsuspecting contender in late July looking to run to glory with the Marmol magic? Maybe it's just the pressure of the ninth that's getting to his head and he can be a shutdown guy in the eighth for a playoff team. Hey, Scott Eyre won a World Series, right? Either way, Marmol's not doing much for a Cubs team that just had their first save opportunity in 15 games on Tuesday.

The Prodigal Son: Bryce Harper's Debut

As my pre-season prediction alluded to, the Nationals have emerged to be one of my favorite teams over the last couple years. I have always been a pitching>hitting type of fan and I had high hopes for the Nats coming into the season after they added Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson to a pitching staff that already featured stud pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman.

However even given these high hopes, there is no way I could have predicted the Nationals pitching staff would be averaging a sub-2.00 ERA through 20 games. Overall the team has been sensational to watch and heading into tonight they were tied for the NL lead with a 14-6 record. Despite this record and the fact they play in a great market, the fan base still isn't as energized as it should be because the Nats are still only 19th in attendance (The Washington Capitals being in the playoffs has not helped).

In a move that was partially driven by the fan base, the Nats called up uber-prospect Bryce Harper for his Major League Debut tonight. This move was also driven a lot by the lack of success seen by the Nats hitters this season. They currently sit at a less than stellar 11th in the NL in runs scored and that was before star hitter Ryan Zimmerman went down injured. With the call up, Nats management hope that Harper could be the spark plug that could jump start the offense until Zimmerman and fellow masher Michael Morse return to the lineup.

Love The Bomb Part II: Flip the Fonz

Brian LaHair is having the strongest season of any position player thus far, hitting .364 with 11 RBIs for a 1.190 OPS and completely out-of-whack 226 OPS+ season-to-date. Naturally, he's blocking the prospect with the best chance of making a mark in the majors this season. However, there's a way to get both these players on the field, pending a check of Jed Hoyer's cajones and Tom Ricketts' wallet: Trading Alfonso Soriano.

LaHair has the ability to man the outfield, having played 107 innings there (including 66 in right) in the waning days of the 2011 season. He's not going to make any highlight-reel catches, but you also save yourself from watching another crow hop for the rest of your life.

Is Ricketts ready to swallow $54M to rightfully get Anthony Rizzo some major league at-bats, avoid Soriano's standard second half apathy, and score a couple lottery-ticket minor leaguers in return? Even with his walk-off hit on Tuesday night, Soriano has one extra-base hit on the year (current OPS+ of 40) and provides little value to any team when he's not knocking balls towards Waveland Avenue. Not only would this rid the Cubs of the one major albatross left from the Hendry era, but it would allow the Cubs to add some bat discipline while backfilling Soriano's power with Rizzo.

Love The Bomb Part I: Sell on Soto

Detective Batista over there is getting outperformed by a catcher many thought was organizational depth after hitting just 21 HRs over 2000+ plate appearances in the minors in the last six seasons. Steve Clevenger also seems to be outperforming Soto behind the plate. Per Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago:

"Clevenger has made just five starts and has only 22 at-bats, but still leads the club with five doubles and starting pitchers have a 1.88 when he starts, compared to a 5.29 ERA when he doesn’t." 

For a guy with a defensive skills of the average replacement (-0.1 career dWAR), Soto needs to be providing value from the plate. In his breakout rookie year of 2008, he had an oWAR of 4.0 on a .285 average with 86 RBIs. While also a function of the declining lineup around him, Soto has fallen off since '08, not breaking 500 plate appearances or 55 RBIs in the last three seasons.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb: Deconstruction of the Hendry-Era Cubs

Contrary to the results earlier this week, the Cubs are not a series-winning team. Three and four run outputs aren't going to take down many teams come June and I don't think the spring winds off the lake are the only impediment to an offensive outburst from this club. Cubs starters have shown they can throw 5+ strong innings, but haven't shown the ability to cover up for the miserable bullpen by finishing strong late in games. The defense--albeit with improvements in the outfield minus Byrd and infield minus Ramirez--continues to be among the worst in baseball.

That said, it's time for Cubs fans, as many of us already have, to get comfortable aiming for middling results. The purpose of the 2012 season doesn't necessarily stray from doing what it takes to win ballgames--it just shifts from the absolute goal of winning a postseason bid to more individualistic (and attainable) goals of developing each player to the point of either (A) understanding their usefulness as they move towards contention or (B) showcasing their ability to current contenders in hopes of a better return.

Over the next four days, I'll explore some moves that would cut the final ties to the Hendry era and deconstruct the team into the building blocks of a future contender.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Series

Introduction
Part I: Sell on Soto

Part II: Flip the Fonz

Part III: Move Marmol
Part IV: Dump Demp

Conclusion

Starlin Castro's Defensive Conundrum

Starlin Castro has five errors already on the season and, as the Tribune pointed out this morning, is on pace for 57 this season. To be fair, he just happens to be the worst defender (for his position) on a miserable defensive lineup. Maybe he has just been jumpy about his impending charges from the wenches of Rush Street. But this young man (still just 22) has averaged an error every 4 1/2 games on his career thus far, something inexcusable if he is to put up superstar-esque WAR going forward. At what point does Cubs management begin to experiment with Starlin at other spots on the diamond?

Cubs Week In Review - Cardinals, Marlins, Reds

Well, that was a rough week. 0-6 Saturday through Friday, including a sweep by the fluorescent Floridian ballclub. A total of 14 runs were scored over six games from the single-specialist Cubs lineup. Starters decided they had enough of outperforming the hitters the first week and sunk down to their rightful place in the bottom third of the majors. And the defense--oh, the defense! Multi-error games Saturday, Tuesday, and Friday have led to big innings from three separate opponents. As I sit here watching the top of the 7th on Saturday (5 RUNS! 10 HITS!), the outfield has made errors on two consecutive plays. Let's hope this week bottoms out as the worst single week of the season. Not much faith in that, but at least the turn of weather in May should warm up the bats and bring some sunny afternoons at the ballpark. After the jump, we knock out a couple burning questions raised through these first few weeks.

Cubs vs. Brewers Series Review

The starters continue to impress as the Cubs finally took a game from their I-94 neighbors yesterday afternoon 8-0. The first three games of the series weren't much to write home about, as the Cubs couldn't muster much beyond singles at the plate and late inning heroics were struck down by the lanky-but-dangerous bullpen tandem of Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford.

Take a look after the jump for game-by-game recaps of the four-game set.

It's going to be a long season: A recap so far

After the first six games a few things are clear about the Cubs this season. With the exception of Paul "Go Daddy Dot Com" Maholm's horrible first inning the starting pitching has been better than advertised in my opinion. I actually give him credit for gutting it out a few more innings despite Cubs fans yelling "Your mother should have swallowed you! Go back to Shittsburgh". However the offense really will never score consistently and it might be a stretch for them to even put up more than four runs a game. Dempster had two solid outings with virtually no run support and I expect more of the same from Garza. Shark decided not to hit the clubs the night before and had a great outing, but we will see if he can build off of it. Volstad will be a solid 4 and hopefully eat innings. Overall the Cubs starting pitching has been solid and I expect that to continue somewhat.

Building A Winner in Ohio

The long-suffering fans of Ohio baseball have seen four significant resignings for their MLB ballclubs over the past week. The Reds extended Joey Votto last week (10 years, $225M) and today added second baseman Brandon Phillips to the fold over the next six years at $72.5M. Meanwhile, Cleveland has quietly made two shrewd moves, extending All-Star SS Asdrubal Cabrera last week (2 years, $16.5M) and Carlos Santana this morning (5 years, $21M).

These moves show opposing strategies for Cincinnati and Cleveland as they move towards contending in the future. What they may bring in long-term championship potential for these teams is up for debate.

Underpants Batman

Even though most of you probably read Grantland, for those who didn't see this today, here is video of a man in a Batman costume and underwear running around Orioles outfield...

The Miami Marlins Experiment Off To Fine Start

After getting outclassed by defending champ St. Louis on Opening Night and off to a ho-hum 2-3 start, the newly-configured Marlins have figured out a way to stay relevant off the field courtesy of two former White Sox.

Manager Ozzie Guillen has again showed the ugly side of his ebulant personality with comments concerning his "love" for Fidel Castro. The Marlins have followed that up with a five game suspension. Funny, these 2008 comments hadn't been called out during Marlins management's pre-hire infatuation with the centerpiece of their new full-on push for the South Florida Latino market. That Latino contingent has now turned on the Marlins before they could enjoy anything but an extravagantly-priced Opening Night. Just another turn in the ongoing Ozzie saga. Guesses on how long the Guillen era lasts in Miami?

Follow that up with this gem on Mark Buehrle getting attacked by a jar of Heileman's on the day of his first NL start (albeit a solid six inning, two hit loss) and only another Carlos Zambrano outburst could complete the trinity of Marlins hilarity that will surely ensue this season.

Go Fish!

Three Strikes - Cubs vs. Nationals

There have not been nearly enough innings played to evaluate a team on what will become a six month, 162 game season, but three points were made clear during the first series of the Cubs season.

Cubs vs. Nationals Series Review

Well, that's about what you could have expected going in to this season opening series. Big for the Cubs to take a win on this final day and take some momentum into the Milwaukee series, but the painful weaknesses for both individuals and entire units of this team continue to appear. Game reviews after the jump...

Northside vs. Southside

A couple of awesome commercials hit the interwebs this week, playing up the "Northside vs Southside" rivalry. The first commercial, which you can see here, is from NewEra. Anytime Ron Swanson talks about anything, it gets my attention. When he's talking about Chicago baseball with Darryl from the Office aka Reg Mackworthy from Eastbound & Down, it's doubly awesome. The second clip from Nike for some reason involves Kenny Williams, and also features AJ looking as toolish as ever. But man, how good does Beckham's hair look? Check it out here. Happy baseball everyone!

Luck based Predictions

As I watch the American cinematic classic "Labyrinth" (driven by an excellent performance by David Bowie in tights) waiting for my 3 am train to Chicago for Opening Day, I thought it would be a great chance to kill time and give my massive catchup post on all types of predictions for the year.

Expect to see all types of grammar problems throughout my blogging experience, especially if you ever read any written by me after 2 am that are titled with such clever jealous titles as "Fuck the Cardinals" or the more philosophical "What if I am always waiting for next year?"

And no, I haven't adjusted my picks based off of the 1-1 A's, 1-1 Mariners, 1-0 Cardinals, and 0-1 Marlins.

With that said, Boom Goes the Dynamite and here are my prognostications for this year.

Jonah Keri is Reasonable, Keith Law Hates the WhiteSox

Today, Jonah Keri at Grantland released his overall MLB season predictions. You can read the full article here. Keri picked the Sox to finish 77-85 and the Cubs to finish 75-87. Both of those seem pretty reasonable.

On the other hand, Keith Law of ESPN hates the WhiteSox, and likes the Cubs only slightly more. If you don't have ESPN insider, Law picked the Sox to finish 67-95, while he expects the Cubs to finish only slightly better at 73-89.

Happy Opening Night everyone, and by Opening Night I mean the 3rd MLB game played this year after two played in Japan that counted. However, nobody realized those games even happened because the Yankees or RedSox weren't playing so ESPN didn't bother covering it and there were still minor league games in between. Fail.

2012 Cubs Season Preview Part IV - Bench

DeWitt, Reed, Baker, Mather, Clevenger. Names that may inspire a night at the bottom of the bottle if they're in your team's starting lineup. But if they're available off your bench? Not that terrible, especially when considering the reinforcements (Rizzo, Jackson, Castillo, Sappelt) that will likely push them off the roster by the end of the summer.

Below are summaries on what each of the current bench players brings to the roster and who is pushing for their job in the upper reaches of the system.

Storied Cubs of the Past Part II

There are certain players from your home team that, while acknowledged from the outside sports world as great, mean so much to you as a fan that they will probably always be your favorite player. Growing up in Chicago in the 1990's, it was very easy to me to completely ignore baseball to be obsessed with the Bulls dynasty. I've never been a fan of the flashiest players or biggest names. I prefer to keep on eye on those athletes who stay consistently good. And while most people probably will better remember Sandberg, Dawson, and Sosa from the 90's, I will always be a fan of.....

MARK GRACE

Your AL Contributor and White Sox Preview (So You Know Who You're Cheering Against)

Who's ready for some baseball? As teams pack up and leave spring training ready for the season, fans across the country are full of excitement, anticipation, and optimism as each team gears up for the first of it's 162 games. Unlike the rest of the contributors on GTW, however, I have allegiances to the SouthSiders and hope to provide a little bit of occasional AL/SouthSide related insight. 

The Patriot's 2012 Predictions

Longtime Cub fan, Chicago sports clothing collector and overall great American Tim Borem (creative username) has long been a realist on the state of the Chicago's north side ballclub. Following the jump, he provides his outlook on the final win totals for each major league team and picks a World Series champion owned by a man who's language he thinks he can speak.

The Pimp Hand Prophecies: 2012 MLB Predictions

The Franchise has never been one to doubt his teams. Lately, with the Blackhawks and Packers taking titles and the Bulls poised to make a run at their own, he hasn't had to see the glass half-empty. As we move towards baseball season, he sees improvements aplenty at Clark and Addison this summer. After the jump, the man now known as Castro's Pimp Hand lays the smack down with his 2012 MLB predictions including overall standings, playoff winners, end-of-season awards, over/unders and boldly optimistic Cubs thoughts.

Cubs Season Preview Part III - The Starting Lineup

The starting lineup - responsible for two-thirds of the game. Yes, the pitching staff leads off each play, but when they don't have a defense behind them (2011 Cubs dead last in majors for fielding %) or an offense generating run support (Cubs 19th in majors in runs scored), a season can only go so far.

The reconstructed Cubs lineup will be tasked with improvements in three key areas in 2012:

• Defense - Again, the 2011 Cubs finished last in the majors in fielding percentage, leading MLB in errors and finishing last in the NL with the lowest defensive efficiency (outs as a percent of balls in play). Improvements have been made at third base (Ian Stewart vs. a declining Aramis Ramirez), right field (DeJesus career average dWAR ~1 win/season vs. Fukudome ~0.4 wins and net zero for Colvin), and backup catcher (how did Koyie Hill stay on this team for the last three years?). However, massive improvements in the middle infield (Castro) will need to be made in order for the team defense to make any noticeable improvement. 
• On-base percentage - The Cubs finished low-middle of the pack in the majors last year in overall OBP (.314 vs. league average of .322). However, they were second to last in the majors in walks (only the lowly Astros trailed). Free swingers like Colvin, Pena, and Soriano don't help with that, but this is a stat especially valued now by the new regime and the "value" lineup the Cubs have put in place will need to capitalize on every chance they get to make it on base.
• Baserunning - The Cubs were third to last in the majors in steals, something they haven't consistently seen since the failed Juan Pierre experiment of 2006 (58 steals but led league with 20 caught stealing). While the major league team is not big at this point on speed guys, the minors have some semblance of baserunning in Brett Jackson, Matt Szczur, and The Little Campana That Could. Manufacturing runs with smart baserunning will be needed and now that basecloggers A-Ram and Pena are gone, Sveum will be called on to move runners along the basepaths in many-a-game.

Here's a player-by-player breakdown of the Cubs lineup, running through the batting order as proposed by the final full-squad Spring Training game played last week:

Storied Cubs of The Past - Brant Brown

You can't move forward unless you know where you've been. In honor of our new season, I have decided to review some of my most infamous Cubs players of all time. As usual, I will take my usual cynical view and  start this post with a joke of a Cub who tried to ruin a potential playoff run (mostly likely because he was being paid off by the Giants).

Gentlemen, this is....

BRANT BROWN

Solid new website

Hello all, I will put up some of my predictions at some point in the next couple of days. But I wanted to bring to the attention of the blog family an awesome website that just launched daily stories this week. It's called chicagoside. One of their first articles is a pretty solid piece on the cubs curse and the only way to break it. Here's the link. Only two more days until opening day!

Cubs Season Preview Part II - Bullpen

Our Cubs preview moves on to the back end of the staff today, working through the delicate bullpen crew. I'll sift through those who will start out the season on the big league club and also touch on those who may make their way to the third base line at some point this season. To start the season, Sveum has the following to work with:

Closer - Carlos Marmol
Set-up - Kerry Wood
LOOGY - James Russell
Middle Relief - Rafael Dolis, 2 of Castillo, Corpas, and Camp
Long Relief - Rodrigo Lopez

Choose A Side - Grantland Team-by-Team O/U Odds

The greatest sports- & culture-related site on the internet, Grantland, has unequivocally cornered the market on mainstream sports prop bet analysis. Here Jonah Keri throws out an Over/Under for each MLB team for the upcoming season. I challenge each of you to choose a side on each and we'll revisit when the season comes to a close. After the jump are my predictions as well as a template for you to paste into the comment section to add your picks.

2012 Season Preview Part II

We continue the 2012 Preview with awards predictions across the total league.

NL MVP - Buster Posey - If the Giants win the NL West, Posey's health will be the reason why. He has the chance at a .300/20/100 season from behind the plate, which voters will give the leg up on most other positions if he can play 135+ games. He has a helluva staff to call, but Posey's role in the middle of the Giants order is just as important as his defensive abilities. 2. Hanley Ramirez 3. Ryan Braun

AL MVP - Adrian Gonzalez - I'm working under the assumption that Pujols will slow his March roll, Fielder will take a while to adjust to the American League, and Jacoby Ellsbury will not steal votes. However, I think Gonzo rediscovers the magic he started off last season with and blows away AL pitching now that he's seen the majority of them. 2. Albert Pujols 3. Miguel Cabrera

Cubs Season Preview Part I - Rotation

With under 96 hours until the first pitch of the 2012 Cubs season, let me take a couple uneducated stabs at where I think this season starts, ends up, and leads to in the ever-brighter future.

Vegas and national media over/unders have the Cubs pegged at 74ish wins, which is a much brighter perspective than I expected to start the year. I have the Cubs at 73, which I think is entirely within the Cubs' boundaries as they are currently constructed. With a couple additions, the Cubs could stretch it to 82 or 83 wins, but I'm not sure Theo's willing to give up much for a far-fetched run at a somewhat open division race. If the current rotation experiments crap out and Rodrigo Lopez takes a spot by June, well, then a 67 win season is not out of the question.

Let's take a quick look at the four pieces of the roster - rotation, bullpen, starting eight, bench. I'll give some brief thoughts on where each player is at this point of his career and what he should be contributing to this Cubs team, but also take deeper dives into key contributors throughout the week as we prepare for the opener.