This is the second of a three-part preview of the 2013 Cubs. Check out Part 1 for a quick review of the 2012 season, the offseason, and pitching staff. Next, I'll examine the ramshackle bullpen and a platoon-laden outfield.
Bullpen
Setup/Closer: Carlos Marmol, Kyuji Fujikawa
LOOGY: James Russell
Middle Relief: Michael Bowden, Shawn Camp, Hisanori Takahashi
The Annual Rule 5 Stash: Hector Rondon
Hendry Era Comp: 2010 - Marmol, Cashner, Russell, Berg, Grabow, Mateo, Howry
Future Headliners (with ETA for prospects): Trey McNutt (2014), James Russell, Rafael Dolis, and maybe Arodys Vizcaino
This year's relievers will challenge the 2010 squad for the worst Cubs pen of the new millennium. That team ended up at a 4.72 ERA, a .343 OBP-against, and a 15-27 record. Carlos Marmol & Jeff Russell are the lone holdouts from that team and that fact alone does not give me much confidence.
It starts in middle relief, which should pitch fewer this year based on the newly-signed depth of the rotation. For the second consecutive season, the front office has burdened the pen with a Rule 5 stash-away, Hector Rondon. Rondon was passable last night, working himself out of a jam with two strikeouts after walking two to start the inning. I still don't expect much from him this season as the majority of sixth and seventh innings will fall to Shawn Camp and Michael Bowden. Camp had a successful 2012 with a K/BB ratio of 2.6 (highest of the Cubs relievers) and a 109 ERA+ (100 is league average). I expect those numbers to regress towards the mean this year, especially at age 37.
Bowden, while repping Naperville high schools (Waubonsie Valley Class of '05), continues to put himself in jams. His numbers actually aren't that bad - 2.95 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 11 games finished - but most of those numbers were stacked up in the waning weeks of the season and his wacky throwing motion does not lend itself to consistency. Little lefty Hisanori Takahashi should get a few innings here and there, but is coming off a 69 ERA+ season and may be buried even further down the bench than Rondon.
Russell had a strong 2012, earning a solid 0.8 WAR for a middle reliever. His history as a starter has given him three useful pitches (fastball, slider, change) which gives him the opportunity to expand beyond just a lefty specialist this year. Russell does not, however, have a swing-and-miss pitch so he'll likely never become and end of the bullpen guy.
There is already controversy at the closer spot, as Marmol's impressive run during the back half of 2012 did not carryover into 2013. Marmol's 1.935 spring WHIP carried into a wretched first appearance as he put the winning run at the plate after coming in to a 3-0 lead. Marmol's otherworldly K-rate (29.2%) is offset by miserable control (18.2% BB-rate) and he's likely to maintain his spot as closer only so he can be showcased to other clubs. Kyuji Fujikawa seems capable of taking over for Marmol based on his career in Japan: 1.36 ERA, 36.7 K% and 6.6 BB% in 369.2 innings over the last six seasons. He was able to pop up the Pirates' last chance in the opener in just two pitches and the Cubs seem committed to making him the closer at some point with a 2-year, $9.5M contract.
All-in-all, Fujikawa, Russell, and maybe Rondon are the only members of this bullpen with a chance to be back in 2014. The Cubs are hoping their dismal history of developing starting pitchers can at least turn out a few solid relievers to contribute to a contender a la Sean Marshall. Trey McNutt, a hard-throwing starter repeating in AA this year, fits the bill and may be up at Wrigley as soon as this fall. He has two plus pitches--a fastball touching 97 and a power-curve considered among the best in the system. His ability to develop a change-up in the higher levels of the minors will determine whether he has a future in the rotation or will move to the Northside to compete for a setup role in 2014.
Outfield
Starters vs. RHP: Alfonso Soriano, David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz
Starters vs. LHP: Soriano, Dave Sappelt/DeJesus, Scott Hairston
Hendry Era Comp: 2010 - Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, Colvin, Nady
Future Lineup (with ETA for prospects): Brett Jackson (2013), Albert Almora (2015), Jorge Soler (2014)
Near the end of the Hendry era, free cash flow was stifled by mounting losses on the field and weighty contracts off of it. With Soriano's death grip on left, the team was forced to make due with mixed company in center and left. Journeyman Marlon Byrd took the lead in center, winning over the crowd with his effort & attitude while posting his best season in a Cubs uniform. Fukudome continued to gut out base hits but struggle to get to balls in right. These two were bolstered by Tyler Colvin's miracle season, Sam Fuld's speed, Xavier Nady's pinch-hitting and even the occasional Micah Hoffpauir or Jeff Baker appearance to form the first of a now-standard Cubs outfield platoon.
The CF and RF platoons of 2010 have been replaced, but much more intelligently - pairing lefties DeJesus and Schierholtz to battle righthanders and righties Sappelt and Hairston to challenge southpaws. The second year of DeJesus will provide light-hitting at-bats, inadequate defense in center and the ever-present scrappiness of a fan favorite. Schierholtz and Hairston provide replacement-level defense (at best) in right, but late-career power capable of deceiving some contender into a trade deadline mistake. Dave Sappelt is an unproven commodity who, like his platoon partners, won't be knocking many onto Waveland but can put up fair defense and challenge .300 should he get steady playing time.
Soriano's a known quantity, more respected in recent seasons for his positive clubhouse presence, consistent power output and age-defying defensive improvements. Most projections have Soriano at a .300 OBP with 25 HRs and replacement-level defense. That will hopefully entice a contender to take a shot at Soriano when their overhyped corner outfielder pulls up limp with a hammy strain come June. If nothing else, the Fonz provides a playoff-ready platoon for a contender's left field or DH spots.
The biggest story along the bricks and ivy this summer will be the callup of Brett Jackson. The lefty-hitting free-swinger showed flashes in 44 appearances last fall, but whiffed an astounding 41% of his plate appearances. The 6'2" 220-pound Jackson's minor league tenure showed off and impressive baserunning, range and arm tools with a significant power stroke when his bat actually finds the ball. Still, the former Top-40 prospect must prove in Des Moines that a reworked swing can at least put him on base one in every three plate appearances to make the other tools worthwhile. Any further digressions could stall this promising prospect's shot at becoming more than a toolsy fourth outfielder -- something Cubs fans are all too familiar with in recent years after the failures of Corey Patterson, Angel Pagan, and Matt Murton.
Through The Muck & The Mire - 2013 Cubs Preview
I would describe Bowden's motion more as "zany" than "wacky," but I digress.
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