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| Chris Sale: Representin' for the gangstas all across the world (and FGCU). |
The Rotation: (2012 stats)
The White Sox hope to continue their strong track record of keeping pitchers healthy, and with a strong bullpen and John Danks floating somewhere along the horizon, the pitching staff is promising, if not awe-inspiring. Keep in mind that I will use mostly traditional statistics with the exception of FIP, which measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average.
The Ace- Chris
Sale- #49- Throws: Left- (17-8, 3.05 ERA, 192 IP, 192K, 3.27 FIP)
Key 2012 Stat: 4.8 WAR
In 2012, Sale moved from the bullpen to a full-time
starting role. Well, it was MOSTLY a starting role as Sale experienced some
elbow discomfort in early May, was moved back to closer by Robin, got pissed,
and then was placed back into the rotation and resumed being filthy. Due to
Sale’s build (6’6”, 180 lbs), unique throwing motion, and a “dead arm” phase he
experienced toward the end of 2012 which caused him to miss a few starts, every
expert and casual fan alike is quick to point out that he’s an injury risk.
Well, guess what idiots? Every pitcher is an injury risk, and Sale has been a
starter his entire baseball life, except for the year and a half with the White
Sox as a reliever. Sale is going to be just fine, and when he is on, he is damn
fun to watch.
So what does Chris “The Condor” Sale throw? Sale features
a lively fastball that sits around 91-93 mph, but he can dial it up to 95
or 96 like he did last year in Tampa. Sale also throws a plus slider which is murder
on lefties, and a plus change up with great movement that he throws to righties
and, against conventional wisdom, has started to throw to lefties as well. If
Sale can stay healthy, the White Sox have a true ace on their staff, and Sale
is signed through 2019. Cawwwwwwwwwww!
Drink When: You
determine that Sale has made someone look foolish on a strikeout.
The Bulldog- Jake
Peavy- #44- Throws Right- (11-12, 3.37 ERA, 219 (!!) IP, 194K, 3.73 FIP)
Key 2012 Stat- 219 Innings pitched marked his highest
innings total since 2007.
Jake Peavy is insane. It’s hilarious. Turn on a White Sox
broadcast and watch him scream and curse into his glove as he stomps around the
pitching mound. But on top of being incredibly entertaining and energetic and
crazy, he’s also a solid #2 starter for the Sox. In 2012 Peavy threw a ton of
innings after fully recovering from his experimental shoulder surgery in July
of 2010, and was the rotation workhorse the Sox sorely needed, with injuries to
Danks and Floyd and the inexperience of Sale and Quintana.
Peavy, however, is not the same flamethrower that he was
back in San Diego when he won the 2007 Cy Young while striking out 240 batters
in 223 innings. He relies a lot more on location, movement, and an improved
changeup to go along with his normal 2-seam fastball and slider/curve offering.
With an FIP of 3.73 compared to his ERA of 3.37, don’t be surprised if there is
an increase in his ERA in 2013. However, I really like the move the Sox made to
bring Peavy back, and for a reasonable price. Peavy is a competitor who no
longer has elite stuff, but as long as his body holds up, he should be a good
bet for 200 IP and an ERA around 3.50-4.00.
Drink When: Peavy
yells at himself, his catcher, the batter, the woman in the first row, the
hotdog vendor, the bat boy, or Hawk Harrelson. He yells a lot.
The “Stuff” Guy-
Gavin Floyd- #34- Throws Right- (12-11, 4.29 ERA, 168 IP, 144K, 4.46 FIP)
Key 2012 Stat- Only threw 168 innings after averaging 195
over the previous 4 seasons.
Gavin Floyd has nasty stuff. His fastball has movement
and sits around 92 to 93 mph. He throws a cutter. He throws a changeup. And if
he has his curveball working, which Hawk will never cease telling you is one of the best in baseball, he can be
damn near unhittable. You watch Gavin on a day where he’s on and you think, “How
does anyone ever hit this guy?” as he mows
down batter after batter on that curveball. But then you watch him on a day where he can’t
get his curve over and hitters sit on his fastball and you think, “How is this
guy a major league pitcher?” Unfortunately, most of his starts fall somewhere
in between, and what you’re left with a guy who generally eats innings,
occasionally makes you say wow, and occasionally makes you go cry yourself to
sleep in a corner.
Drink When: Hawk
talks about how great Gavin’s curveball is, or Stone says something about keeping
his chest behind the ball (weird).
The First Question
Mark- Jose Quintana- #62- Throws Left- (6-6, 3.76 ERA, 136.1 IP, 81K, 4.33
FIP)
Key 2012 Stat- A relative unknown, Quintana carried a sub
3.00 ERA well into the season until regression and scouting reports finally
caught up to him.
In 2012, when John Danks went down, Gavin Floyd had some
elbow issues, and the Condor and Bulldog couldn’t do it all alone, the Sox
called on the youngster Quintana and could not have been much happier with the
results. While Quintana doesn’t strike many people out, he’s a groundball
pitcher (47.2% GB%) who is not afraid to pound his cutter inside to right
handed hitters. As the season went on, however, batters started to realize that
Quintana struggled to command his pitches arm side (outside to righties, inside
to lefties), and were able to cheat and jump on pitches on the glove side of
the plate. Quintana spent
a good chunk of the offseason working on his arm side command, and fine
tuning his changeup as another offering to right handed hitters. But 136.1
marked the most innings he has ever pitched, by far, and it remains to be
determined if he can last an entire season. Although not excellent, Quintana
was effective for the Sox last year, and if the Sox want to be competitive,
they will need another strong year from Q.
Drink When:
Hawk Harrelson has a blowup about an umpire, because one of Quintana’s pitches
last year caused one of the all-time greats.
Two Fifth Starters
and a Guy Who Used to be the Ace: Dylan Axelrod, Hector Santiago, &
John Danks.
Dylan Axelrod is going to start the season as the Sox 5th
starter. He’s your typical fifth starter. He’ll eat some innings, throw a
couple decent outings and a couple terrible ones, and really you’ll hope he can
bridge you to the 5th or 6th innings while being serviceable.
He’s right handed, throws in the high 80s, and uses a lot of off-speed pitches
to be effective.
Hector Santiago has more upside than Axelrod, and after a
failed run at closer last year, he looks to be the long reliever out of the
bullpen and, if Axelrod is ineffective, can receive some spot starts. Santiago
can pop it up around 93 to 94 mph from the left side, and is unique because he
throws a screw-ball! What is this, Mario Baseball on Gameboy? Anyway, I like
Santiago and think he has a real decent shot at being an effective MLB starter.
And then you run into the issue of John Danks and his
sad, sad shoulder. In 2010, John Danks was 15-11 with a 3.70 FIP and in 2011,
despite a 4.33 ERA, Danks still posted a 3.82 FIP and received a 5 year, $65M
extension. Danks started opening day 2012 and was viewed as one of the building
blocks of the rotation, even if he may not have truly been an “ace.” And then
in 2012, things sort of fell apart. Danks ended up having surgery to repair a
torn shoulder capsule in his throwing shoulder, as well as remove “debris” from
his rotator cuff and bicep. Optimistic reports had everyone, including Danks,
hoping that he would be ready for the start of the season, and then he posted a
16.36 ERA in 11 Spring Training innings with only 4 strikeouts. Danks, who
relies heavily upon his excellent changeup, was having trouble topping 87-88
mph with his fastball, which normally sits at 91-92. 4 mph makes a huge
difference for a fastball/changeup pitcher, and Danks also struggled to command
his cutter, another one of his bread and butter pitches. Danks starts the
season on the DL, and nobody is quite sure when, or if, he’ll make his
triumphant return to the roation.
Drink When: Any
one of these pitchers finishes an inning, because innings from this spot are
going to be at a premium.
The Bullpen (2012 Stats)
Since people don’t really care about who’s going to be
pitching in the 5th inning of a July day game after Dylan Axelrod
barely makes it through the 4th, I’m going to quickly focus on the 5
main characters in this bullpen story; Matt Thornton, Donnie “Baby-meat” Veal,
Matt Lindstrom, Jesse Crain, and Addison “My parents wouldn’t have named me
this if they’d known I’d be on the White Sox not Cubs” Reed.
Matt “Easy Heat” Thornton- #37-(4-10, 3.46 ERA, 65 IP,
53K, 3.19 FIP)- Throws left
Let me preface this by saying that Matt Thornton is still
a good reliever. He is hell on lefties, can still bring it, and has been one of
many great success stories in Don Cooper’s illustrious pitching coach career.
But man, do I miss the good old days. In 2010, when Easy Heat posted a 2.67 ERA
and 81 Ks in just 60 IP, it seemed that he would trot in from the bullpen like
a velociraptor, rear back and just throw some 99 mph GAS and be like “seriously
I dare you to hit this shit.” And nobody could. Those days of Easy Heat are
gone, but as his FIP suggests, look for Thornton to have a bit of a bounce back
season in 2013.
Drink When:
Thornton blows someone away with high heat. It’s still a joy to watch.
Donnie “Baby-Meat” Veal-#46- (0-0, 1.38 ERA, 13 IP, 19
Ks, 1.09 FIP)- Throws left
Former Cubs (!!) farmhand Donnie Veal makes this list for
two reasons. One- he has an awesome and very self-explanatory nickname. Two- he
is Prince Fielder’s kryptonite. Donnie is the Sox LOOGY, throws pretty solid
heat and has a narsty curveball.
Drink When: Veal
K’s a lefty with a breaking ball.
Jesse Crain- #26- (2-3, 2.44 ERA, 48 IP, 60 K, 3.45 FIP)-
Throws right
Crain is a solid right handed set up man who often deals
with nagging injuries, which resulted in only 48 IP in 2012 compared to 65 and
68 the two years before. Crain throws a hard fastball (94-95 mph) and a pretty
wicked slider/curve, and that’s about it. Robin will look to use him in any
situation but mostly the 8th inning with righties batting. He
strained his adductor (shoulder) muscle this spring but supposedly is okay and
starts the season with the squad, not on the DL.
Drink When:
Crain inexplicably shaves his head into some sort of weird Mohawk which will
definitely happen at some point this year.
Matt Lindstrom- #27- (1-0, 2.68 ERA, 47 IP, 40K, 3.16
FIP)- Throws right
We discussed Lindstrom a bit in the
acquisitions piece of part 1 of the White Sox preview. He’s going to throw
a ton of groundballs and be relatively solid and an option to set up and even
potentially close should Addison Reed falter.
Addison Reed- #43- (3-2, 4.75 ERA, 55 IP, 54K, 3.64 FIP)-
Throws right
Addison Reed opens the season with a relatively firm hold on the Sox closer position, especially after a scoreless 9th in the Sox opener in which he got a strikeout and two groundouts (both on sliders, more on that in a second). Reed was rocketed through the Sox minors and they knew he would be a reliever the whole time. Reed gained some fame as Stephen Strasburg’s closer at San Diego State in college. He throws a fastball with a lot of life and movement between 94 and 96 mph, a pretty nasty changeup to lefties(when he can locate it), and a developing slider. Last year, Reed managed 29 saves in his rookie campaign, which is pretty darn good, and I think he can be much better. His fastball is his true weapon, but as the season went on, he lost touch with his slider and became a 1 pitch pitcher against righties. Reed spent the offseason working on his slider, and while it’s not the filthy snapdragon that Sergio Santos used to throw, any improvement to keep right handed hitters off balance will be welcome. I expect a big year from Mr. Reed in 2013.
Drink When: Well
this one’s easy, whenever he makes a save.
Prediction:
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system has the Sox
at 77-85 this year. Last year, it had them at 78-84, and they finished 85-77.
There’s a theme here, as the White Sox excellent pitching coach Don Cooper and
fantastic trainer Herm Schneider (go NCHS Redhawks!), have a history of keeping
players healthy and saving wins. As you, the reader, have gained throughout
reading the offensive and defensive pieces of this preview, there are a lot of
things that need to go well for the Sox to compete, and the very real
possibility that
things go all Walter White and break bad. The key pieces for the Sox are pretty
straightforward. Keep Sale, Peavy, and Floyd healthy, and receive some starting
pitching support from any combination of Q, Santiago, Axl Rose, and Johnny
Danks. Get Adam Dunn a bit higher over the Mendoza Line. Keep the Tank moving forward
as he blows through enemy lines (pitching staffs). Hope that Gordon Beckham’s
marriage revitalizes his Mojo, both on and off the field. I think this will be
a solid White Sox team, and with the veteran leadership in the clubhouse and
Robin at the helm, they will compete every day. However, I just don’t see
enough things going right this year, as the Sox fall just short of the playoffs
for the second year in a row.
Record: 84-78
Finish: 2nd Place AL Central, last spot out of AL Wild Card
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