Monday, April 8, 2013

Though The Muck & The Mire: 2013 Cubs Preview - Infielders & Catchers



Happy Home Opener. This is the last of a three-part preview of the 2013 Cubs. Check out Part 1 for a quick review of the 2012 season, the offseason, and rotation and Part 2 for a check on the bullpen and outfield.

Infield
Starters: Anthony Rizzo, Darwin Barney, Starlin Castro, Luis Valbuena
Bench: Brent Lillibridge, Alberto Gonzalez
Coming Reinforcements: Ian Stewart, Josh Vitters
Hendry Era Comp: There isn't one really - Aramis Ramirez was (and still is) far superior to any current 3B options and the Hendry teams never had young studs like Rizzo & Castro at their respective positions. 
Future Lineup (with ETA for Prospects): Rizzo, Logan Watkins (2014), Castro, Javier Baez (2015)

The highest potential Cubs on the current roster occupy the infield. Anthony Rizzo has the potential to be an annual All-Star with annual .300/30/100 lines alongside Gold Glove defense. Honestly, I think 2013 will be the first of those years and I'm not alone. Rizzo already crushes righties (.892 2012 OPS). Once he figures out how to handle southpaws (.599 2012 OPS) and draw a couple walks (just 27 in 87 games), Rizzo will be a fixture in the middle of the order for the next decade.



Likewise, Starlin Castro has the ability to be among the best at his position for the foreseeable future. Vilified for his defense in these early years of his career, Castro actually made his way to the middle of the pack last year after spending his first few seasons near the bottom of the league. The rangy Castro has made defense a priority during the offseason, though to suggest that you won't see a few tosses over Rizzo's head would be a mistake. Those overthrows will be taken in kind if Castro can return to the .300 BA levels of his first two seasons after sliding to a .283 figure last year. Taking a walk every now and then wouldn't hurt the ol' OBP either - his career walk rate of 5.2% won't cut it for a guy with a league-average power. All-in-all, it's a big year for Starlin to make a push towards stardom while others from his age group join him in the big leagues.

Darwin Barney is clearly a plus-plus defender, though it does come at a below-average position of difficulty. His 2012 Gold Glove proves the respect he garners across the league, something that could pay off should the front office decide he's not part of future plans.

On the other hand, this infield has zero depth. Brent Lillibridge and Steve Clevenger cover the two utility spots. You shouldn't hope for more than the Mendoza line from either of those two alongside some replacement-level defense. At third, Luis Valbuena was expected to back up Ian Stewart. Stewart went down with yet another lingering injury, something that's hampered him since coming up as a top prospect. No, really. There were few expectations for either side of this platoon though, so another season of Injured Ian doesn't really do much harm to the 2013 Cubs. What does, however, hurt the long-term potential of the position is not giving Josh Vitters an extended shot at the hot corner.

As a former #3 overall pick, Vitters has not translated his picture-perfect swing into a smooth rise to the majors. After up-and-down play in the low-minors, Vitters put together back-to-back solid seasons in AA & AAA before getting a cup of coffee at Wrigley last September. He whiffed 33 times in just 109 plate appearances en route to an OPS+ of 8--league average is 100. The performance was bad enough that he fell off most Top-15 prospect lists for the organization. With challengers at the hot corner rising quickly through the system (Christian Villanueva, Jeimer Candelario, possibly Javier Baez), this season may be Vitters' last chance at a full-time MLB role with the Cubs. If he can put together a consistent spring in Des Moines, Vitters should be given an extended shot at third for the rest of the summer. There's literally nothing to lose.

Catchers
Starter: Welington Castillo
Bench: Dioner Navarro
Hendry Era Comp: 2010 - Soto, Hill
Future Lineup: Castillo

Welington Castillo follows Geovany Soto as the next hope for a long-term solution behind the plate. Soto's star finally flamed out as he wasn't able to return to the 2008 level that earned him NL Rookie of the Year and was mercifully spun off to Arlington last year. Castillo filled in for the remainder of the year, putting up an admirable .265/.337/.418 line over 190 plate appearances. At 26, Castillo is a seasoned veteran of the Cubs system and offers solid contact and power numbers for a backstop. He won't blow away anyone with his defense, but he also won't embarrass himself behind the dish. Cubs management looks to Castillo as the future catcher for a contending ballblub, as there is a black hole at the position in the system. A Soto-esque .275, 10 HR, 50 RBI season isn't out of the question and would go far in confirming management's confidence in Castillo for the future.

Through The Muck & The Mire - 2013 Cubs Preview
Part 3: Infielders and Catchers

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