Alex Rios- The Most Interesting Man in the World on the SouthSide

Can I help you?

In my last post for GRTW, I had Alex Rios firmly placed in the "John Travolta" category, concluding that his performance went both ways in the first quarter of the season, some good and some bad. In that post, I wrote, "At the dish, Rios is hitting .267/.322/.370, which doesn’t sound great except for the fact that it’s a drastic improvement (so far) over last year’s .227/.265/.348 line. If he keeps his average around .280, chips in a few more home runs, and continues to play a stellar RF, well, it could be worse." True, it could have been worse, but there's no way it could have gotten better, right? Wrong. Since that time, Alex Rios has been better. MUCH better. After today's 12-5 drubbing of the suddenly terrible Twins in which Rios went 3-5 with 2 RBI, 2 runs scored, and hit his 10th HR of the year, his triple slash line looks like this: .302/.340/.496. He also has 40 runs scored, 41 RBI, and 11 SB (w/ only 3 CS) on the year. Pair that with a UZR/150 of 6.4 in RF, and Alex Rios is really playing some ball. 

What is so strange about Rios' performance this year is, well, really, everything. As my fellow Irish alum (and fantastic blogger) James Fegan wrote over at White Sox Observer (article found HERE), Rios's performance last year was horrible in basically every aspect. He didn't hit, he played an awful center field, he only stole 11 bases, and was caught 6 times. However, with the departure of Ozzie and Greg Walker, the insertion of Robin and new hitting coach Jeff Manto, and Rios' move to RF, he's become a new player entirely. In 2011 Alex Rios was worth -0.7 Wins Above Replacement. Through 75 games in 2012, he's already accumulated 1.9 WAR. I have no idea what is driving this renaissance, but whatever it is, I hope Rios continues to draw from its mystical powers. The volatility in Rios' game may not make him the most interesting man in the world, but it certainly makes him the most interesting man on the South Side.  

Look back at the First Quarter of the Season for the Cubs

As we look back at the first quarter of the Cubs season it kind of feels like looking back at yourself from high school. You think to yourself and ask did I really do that? Do I have any discipline? Did I really think that would work? Followed by comments like "Wow, that was embarassing" and "Well, at least I tried hard". The season is sadly already basically over largely due to the fact that Rick Moranis hits more on women at bars on a Saturday night than the Cubs lineup seems to and the bullpen is about effective as condoms were for that dude who had like 37 kids looking for a break from child support. Here's some brief thoughts:

The Kerry Over Effect: How Wood's Retirement Will Reshape the Cubs' Bullpen

Kerry Wood, the monument of everything right about being a Chicago Cub over the last 17 years, is retiring. The Cubs got one last memorable appearance, striking out Dayan Viciedo on three pitches and getting a standing ovation from the crowd and a hug from his son as he walked off the field for the final time.

If this was Alfonso Soriano, the bleacher bums waiting in line on Waveland would already be chugging celebratory Old Styles. But this is Kid K, the man who threw 20 strikeouts in one game in his rookie year, led the Cubs to the NLCS in 2003, and took a hometown discount to come back to Chicago two winters ago. He'll take a spot somewhere in the Cubs organization, likely as an advisor on Jed Hoyer's staff with the possibility of moving into scouting, coaching or an enhanced front office role in future seasons. Regardless of his official role with the team, Wood will always be welcomed back with open arms at Wrigley.

More on Kerry Wood's legacy to come, but after the jump we look at how the move will reshape the Cubs bullpen.

Fully Torqued: A White Sox 40-Game Review

Remember how we used to laugh?

White Sox Record: 18-21- 3^rd in AL Central (4.5 games behind Cleveland)

It’s been an interesting start to the 2012 season for the SouthSiders thus far, filled with lots of highlights and an equal amount of lowlights. Within this article, I’ll try to cover some of both, as well as a few “meh” areas that fall right in between.

Cubs Contracts and Callups - Cole Hamels

The suddenly-old-school Cole Hamels figures to take a chance at the open market this winter as the struggling Phillies decide what the future of their aging ballclub will look like. There are already talks of Hamels and fellow free-agent-to-be Shane Victorino being shopped by Philadelphia to avoid just draft-pick compensation for their departures.

As a top-5 lefty in the game, Hamels figures to chase a contract in the neighborhood of 8 years, $160M, nearing CC Sabathia for the largest contract for a pitcher in baseball history. Obviously that could become an Zito-esque albatross as quickly as you can say "shoulder soreness". Still, the shot at having a Hamels-Garza-Samardzija lead to the rotation while not having the pressure to develop a top-of-the-rotation guy from the subpar pitching depth in the Cubs' system would help Theo to build a contender as quickly as 2013.

Cubs Contracts and Callups - Brett Jackson

Brett Jackson has been the top Cubs prospect since Starlin Castro moved to the majors early in 2010. He was ranked the #32 prospect in baseball after tearing through the minors all the way up to a mid-summer callup to Iowa last season. His plate discipline has disappointed this season and he's struggled to just a .238 BA. OBP will probably be the most telltale sign of callup time, as he'll need to be a .350+ OBP player to stick in the top few spots in the big league order.

Cubs Contracts and Callups - Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo is in his second consecutive year of +1.000 OPS in AAA, hitting .338 with 11 HR and 34 RBI already at Iowa. This all while Bryan LaHair occupies his only realistic defensive position up in Chicago and albatross Alfonso Soriano "Occupy Wrigley" stance in left further complicates any likelihood of Rizzo fitting into the daily lineup.

Cubs Contracts and Callups - Starlin Castro

Earlier this year I discussed the possibility that the Cubs ink Castro to a long-term extension in the vein of the Tampa Bay Rays. It looks like Castro's agent Paul Kinzer has pushed negotiations to the back burner now.

Cubs Contracts and Callups - Matt Garza

The Cubs have changed their mind on trading Garza and that's because of Jeff Samardzija. Including Ryan Dempster, the Cubs top three starters have a WHIP of 1.01 over 112 2/3 IP. Per reports, the emergence of Samardzija as a top-half-of-the-rotation starter has the Cubs believing the 1-2 punch of power arms could have them contending sooner rather than later. Thus the goal would be to move Dempster for a high-ceiling prospect or two (depending on picking up some portion of his remaining $14M deal) and negotiate long-term rights to Garza.

Cubs Contracts and Callups

The Cubs season hums on in last place in the NL Central at 13-20, damned by a six-game, mid-April losing streak. Yes, when a team is built around cornerstones like Ian Stewart, David DeJesus and Chris Volstad, you can be damned by six games in April.

There have been glimmers of hope. Bryan LaHair has maintained an OPS of 1.127 through mid-May. James Russell has backfilled Sean Marshall by allowing just one earned run over 13+ IP. Tony Campana has an on-base percentage of .373 in his first extended look as a major league starter. Darwin Barney leads MLB second baseman in defensive WAR (0.9).

This team has made themselves watchable because of the hustle and potential they've shown. However nice it is to see role players like LaHair, Russell, Campana and Barney exceed expectations though, locking in key cogs will be more important to the future success of the Cubs.

How will Matt Garza's contract situation be handled? What about an early extension for Starlin Castro? When will Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson get the call to Wrigley? Who will the Cubs chase in free agency to supplement this young roster?

Cubs Contracts and Callups

Introduction

Matt Garza

Starlin Castro

Anthony Rizzo

Brett Jackson

Cole Hamels

The End of the Marmol Era

"You have a game like that — I'm embarrassed right now."

I'm glad today's game was witnessed by no one. Well, let me rephrase that. I'm glad no one witnessed the 9th.

Ten Things I've Learned This Far

1. As I sit here getting ready to cheer on the Cubbies in my Soto jersey tee with a craft beer in my hand, my first realization has come to mind. Soto is a hippie stoner washout still in his 20s. The dude has one homer with one RBI to match and a well below .200 average. A far cry from his stellar rookie of the year campaign. It seems that he has regressed year by year and I don't think he will ever regain form sadly. Trade him for something while they can and let's usher in the Welington Castillo era. Steve Cleve can beg for change on Damen.

2. Marmol may not be as good as advertised. He has more blown saves than saves and hasn't been able to find the strikezone consistently again. People know not to swing at that ridiculous slider anymore since it always ends up out of the zone. I love the guy and it hurts to say this, but he might not be the guy closing games when they are a serious contender in a few years. I like what I see in Dolis and I think he will become a pretty good setup man/potential closer.

Love The Bomb Conclusion: What does this say about the future?

Clearly, the Cubs cannot make all these deals. Without a swift turnaround, Soriano, Marmol and Soto have limited trade value even at positions of need for contending clubs. Dempster's no-trade clause also limits the probability that he can be moved out of town as well. However, the Cubs need to leverage any performances exceeding expectation into increased talent in their minor league organization, especially young arms.

If anyone inquires on Jeff Baker, Blake DeWitt, or Reed Johnson, Theo and Jed should not hesitate to take whatever you can get for them. Soft-hitting Darwin Barney should be made expendable by the performance of Adrian Cardenas in AAA (.338 BA, .978 OPS, 3 K in 78 PAs). Paul Maholm, Kerry Wood, and Shawn Camp, though inexpensive, are also easily-replaceable parts. Calls for DeJesus, LaHair, and even Garza cannot be flatly rejected as the Cubs should be willing to hear out any overwhelming deals coming their way.

In short, only Starlin, Rizzo, and maybe Samardzija are untouchable at the moment. There are few players with guaranteed roles should the Cubs move into contention in future years. In all likelihood, the lack of power, inadequate bullpen and sketchy end of the rotation will leave the Cubs chasing .500 in vain for the rest of 2012. The focus of roster changes should be on moving out veteran parts to contenders for high-ceiling prospects. A strong minor league will only benefit the big club in future years, either contributing at Wrigley or holding value to move for veterans of their own as the team moves towards a playoff berth.


Over the next few months, we'll profile prospects that may contribute to a team in, say, 2015. What will the outfield look like? Are there any young aces in the system? Who will team with Rizzo and Castro on the infield? Prospects are always a difficult animal to dissect with injuries and changes to form common amongst young players. However, one thing can be certain--the Cubs need to move major league chips out in order to build talent depth for that 2015 contender.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Series

Introduction
Part I: Sell on Soto

Part II: Flip the Fonz

Part III: Move Marmol
Part IV: Dump Demp
Conclusion

Love the Bomb Part IV: Dump Demp

Starting pitching is a much stickier issue for the organization than the development of the everyday lineup. The minors don't have many arms with top-of-the-rotation stuff, while the majors are heavy on back of the rotation guys who have mixed results so far in this pressureless 2012 Cubs season. Still, each of the five starters on the Opening Day staff has had at least one quality outing and the top three of Dempster, Garza and Samardzija has been fantastic with an ERA of 2.77 over 12 starts. The Cubs have little to show for that--just 4 wins for those top three and 8 wins for the starters overall--due to a miserable bullpen (-0.3 WAR) and some dreadful defense (second-worst RZR or "out rate" in the league).

I think this rotation has a few pieces that can be built around for future years. Unless Garza can net the Cubs multiple four-star prospects, it's not worth dumping someone who can be a very good #2 starter on a contending team. He's one of the few always-positive guys in the clubhouse and although zany as ever in the dugout, has been calm and collected thus far on the mound. Samardzija has potential as a #3 guy if he can continue to locate his breaking stuff and avoid serving up gopher balls as he had a tendency to do over his first couple seasons out of the 'pen. Dempster also has a significant value for this club, though at 35 on Thursday and entering free agency this fall it's more on the trade market than on the mound.

Love The Bomb Part III: Move Marmol

Closers generally come and go. One only need go so far as Des Moines to find the aptly-named Manny Corpas, who has floated around the minor leagues after being cut just three seasons after a late-season run as closer of the pennant-winning Rockies. Marmol has lost control of his slider and become a below-average closer. It won't take too much more for Sveum to demote him below the surprisingly strong James Russell or closer-of-the-future Rafael Dolis.

What if, instead, the Cubs struggle through the pain of a few more rough outings, wait for Carlos to regain his patented slider, and dump him on an unsuspecting contender in late July looking to run to glory with the Marmol magic? Maybe it's just the pressure of the ninth that's getting to his head and he can be a shutdown guy in the eighth for a playoff team. Hey, Scott Eyre won a World Series, right? Either way, Marmol's not doing much for a Cubs team that just had their first save opportunity in 15 games on Tuesday.

The Prodigal Son: Bryce Harper's Debut

As my pre-season prediction alluded to, the Nationals have emerged to be one of my favorite teams over the last couple years. I have always been a pitching>hitting type of fan and I had high hopes for the Nats coming into the season after they added Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson to a pitching staff that already featured stud pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman.

However even given these high hopes, there is no way I could have predicted the Nationals pitching staff would be averaging a sub-2.00 ERA through 20 games. Overall the team has been sensational to watch and heading into tonight they were tied for the NL lead with a 14-6 record. Despite this record and the fact they play in a great market, the fan base still isn't as energized as it should be because the Nats are still only 19th in attendance (The Washington Capitals being in the playoffs has not helped).

In a move that was partially driven by the fan base, the Nats called up uber-prospect Bryce Harper for his Major League Debut tonight. This move was also driven a lot by the lack of success seen by the Nats hitters this season. They currently sit at a less than stellar 11th in the NL in runs scored and that was before star hitter Ryan Zimmerman went down injured. With the call up, Nats management hope that Harper could be the spark plug that could jump start the offense until Zimmerman and fellow masher Michael Morse return to the lineup.

Love The Bomb Part II: Flip the Fonz

Brian LaHair is having the strongest season of any position player thus far, hitting .364 with 11 RBIs for a 1.190 OPS and completely out-of-whack 226 OPS+ season-to-date. Naturally, he's blocking the prospect with the best chance of making a mark in the majors this season. However, there's a way to get both these players on the field, pending a check of Jed Hoyer's cajones and Tom Ricketts' wallet: Trading Alfonso Soriano.

LaHair has the ability to man the outfield, having played 107 innings there (including 66 in right) in the waning days of the 2011 season. He's not going to make any highlight-reel catches, but you also save yourself from watching another crow hop for the rest of your life.

Is Ricketts ready to swallow $54M to rightfully get Anthony Rizzo some major league at-bats, avoid Soriano's standard second half apathy, and score a couple lottery-ticket minor leaguers in return? Even with his walk-off hit on Tuesday night, Soriano has one extra-base hit on the year (current OPS+ of 40) and provides little value to any team when he's not knocking balls towards Waveland Avenue. Not only would this rid the Cubs of the one major albatross left from the Hendry era, but it would allow the Cubs to add some bat discipline while backfilling Soriano's power with Rizzo.

Love The Bomb Part I: Sell on Soto

Detective Batista over there is getting outperformed by a catcher many thought was organizational depth after hitting just 21 HRs over 2000+ plate appearances in the minors in the last six seasons. Steve Clevenger also seems to be outperforming Soto behind the plate. Per Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago:

"Clevenger has made just five starts and has only 22 at-bats, but still leads the club with five doubles and starting pitchers have a 1.88 when he starts, compared to a 5.29 ERA when he doesn’t." 

For a guy with a defensive skills of the average replacement (-0.1 career dWAR), Soto needs to be providing value from the plate. In his breakout rookie year of 2008, he had an oWAR of 4.0 on a .285 average with 86 RBIs. While also a function of the declining lineup around him, Soto has fallen off since '08, not breaking 500 plate appearances or 55 RBIs in the last three seasons.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb: Deconstruction of the Hendry-Era Cubs

Contrary to the results earlier this week, the Cubs are not a series-winning team. Three and four run outputs aren't going to take down many teams come June and I don't think the spring winds off the lake are the only impediment to an offensive outburst from this club. Cubs starters have shown they can throw 5+ strong innings, but haven't shown the ability to cover up for the miserable bullpen by finishing strong late in games. The defense--albeit with improvements in the outfield minus Byrd and infield minus Ramirez--continues to be among the worst in baseball.

That said, it's time for Cubs fans, as many of us already have, to get comfortable aiming for middling results. The purpose of the 2012 season doesn't necessarily stray from doing what it takes to win ballgames--it just shifts from the absolute goal of winning a postseason bid to more individualistic (and attainable) goals of developing each player to the point of either (A) understanding their usefulness as they move towards contention or (B) showcasing their ability to current contenders in hopes of a better return.

Over the next four days, I'll explore some moves that would cut the final ties to the Hendry era and deconstruct the team into the building blocks of a future contender.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Series

Introduction
Part I: Sell on Soto

Part II: Flip the Fonz

Part III: Move Marmol
Part IV: Dump Demp

Conclusion

Starlin Castro's Defensive Conundrum

Starlin Castro has five errors already on the season and, as the Tribune pointed out this morning, is on pace for 57 this season. To be fair, he just happens to be the worst defender (for his position) on a miserable defensive lineup. Maybe he has just been jumpy about his impending charges from the wenches of Rush Street. But this young man (still just 22) has averaged an error every 4 1/2 games on his career thus far, something inexcusable if he is to put up superstar-esque WAR going forward. At what point does Cubs management begin to experiment with Starlin at other spots on the diamond?