Love The Bomb Conclusion: What does this say about the future?

Clearly, the Cubs cannot make all these deals. Without a swift turnaround, Soriano, Marmol and Soto have limited trade value even at positions of need for contending clubs. Dempster's no-trade clause also limits the probability that he can be moved out of town as well. However, the Cubs need to leverage any performances exceeding expectation into increased talent in their minor league organization, especially young arms.

If anyone inquires on Jeff Baker, Blake DeWitt, or Reed Johnson, Theo and Jed should not hesitate to take whatever you can get for them. Soft-hitting Darwin Barney should be made expendable by the performance of Adrian Cardenas in AAA (.338 BA, .978 OPS, 3 K in 78 PAs). Paul Maholm, Kerry Wood, and Shawn Camp, though inexpensive, are also easily-replaceable parts. Calls for DeJesus, LaHair, and even Garza cannot be flatly rejected as the Cubs should be willing to hear out any overwhelming deals coming their way.

In short, only Starlin, Rizzo, and maybe Samardzija are untouchable at the moment. There are few players with guaranteed roles should the Cubs move into contention in future years. In all likelihood, the lack of power, inadequate bullpen and sketchy end of the rotation will leave the Cubs chasing .500 in vain for the rest of 2012. The focus of roster changes should be on moving out veteran parts to contenders for high-ceiling prospects. A strong minor league will only benefit the big club in future years, either contributing at Wrigley or holding value to move for veterans of their own as the team moves towards a playoff berth.


Over the next few months, we'll profile prospects that may contribute to a team in, say, 2015. What will the outfield look like? Are there any young aces in the system? Who will team with Rizzo and Castro on the infield? Prospects are always a difficult animal to dissect with injuries and changes to form common amongst young players. However, one thing can be certain--the Cubs need to move major league chips out in order to build talent depth for that 2015 contender.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Series

Introduction
Part I: Sell on Soto

Part II: Flip the Fonz

Part III: Move Marmol
Part IV: Dump Demp
Conclusion

Love the Bomb Part IV: Dump Demp

Starting pitching is a much stickier issue for the organization than the development of the everyday lineup. The minors don't have many arms with top-of-the-rotation stuff, while the majors are heavy on back of the rotation guys who have mixed results so far in this pressureless 2012 Cubs season. Still, each of the five starters on the Opening Day staff has had at least one quality outing and the top three of Dempster, Garza and Samardzija has been fantastic with an ERA of 2.77 over 12 starts. The Cubs have little to show for that--just 4 wins for those top three and 8 wins for the starters overall--due to a miserable bullpen (-0.3 WAR) and some dreadful defense (second-worst RZR or "out rate" in the league).

I think this rotation has a few pieces that can be built around for future years. Unless Garza can net the Cubs multiple four-star prospects, it's not worth dumping someone who can be a very good #2 starter on a contending team. He's one of the few always-positive guys in the clubhouse and although zany as ever in the dugout, has been calm and collected thus far on the mound. Samardzija has potential as a #3 guy if he can continue to locate his breaking stuff and avoid serving up gopher balls as he had a tendency to do over his first couple seasons out of the 'pen. Dempster also has a significant value for this club, though at 35 on Thursday and entering free agency this fall it's more on the trade market than on the mound.

Love The Bomb Part III: Move Marmol

Closers generally come and go. One only need go so far as Des Moines to find the aptly-named Manny Corpas, who has floated around the minor leagues after being cut just three seasons after a late-season run as closer of the pennant-winning Rockies. Marmol has lost control of his slider and become a below-average closer. It won't take too much more for Sveum to demote him below the surprisingly strong James Russell or closer-of-the-future Rafael Dolis.

What if, instead, the Cubs struggle through the pain of a few more rough outings, wait for Carlos to regain his patented slider, and dump him on an unsuspecting contender in late July looking to run to glory with the Marmol magic? Maybe it's just the pressure of the ninth that's getting to his head and he can be a shutdown guy in the eighth for a playoff team. Hey, Scott Eyre won a World Series, right? Either way, Marmol's not doing much for a Cubs team that just had their first save opportunity in 15 games on Tuesday.

Love The Bomb Part II: Flip the Fonz

Brian LaHair is having the strongest season of any position player thus far, hitting .364 with 11 RBIs for a 1.190 OPS and completely out-of-whack 226 OPS+ season-to-date. Naturally, he's blocking the prospect with the best chance of making a mark in the majors this season. However, there's a way to get both these players on the field, pending a check of Jed Hoyer's cajones and Tom Ricketts' wallet: Trading Alfonso Soriano.

LaHair has the ability to man the outfield, having played 107 innings there (including 66 in right) in the waning days of the 2011 season. He's not going to make any highlight-reel catches, but you also save yourself from watching another crow hop for the rest of your life.

Is Ricketts ready to swallow $54M to rightfully get Anthony Rizzo some major league at-bats, avoid Soriano's standard second half apathy, and score a couple lottery-ticket minor leaguers in return? Even with his walk-off hit on Tuesday night, Soriano has one extra-base hit on the year (current OPS+ of 40) and provides little value to any team when he's not knocking balls towards Waveland Avenue. Not only would this rid the Cubs of the one major albatross left from the Hendry era, but it would allow the Cubs to add some bat discipline while backfilling Soriano's power with Rizzo.

Love The Bomb Part I: Sell on Soto

Detective Batista over there is getting outperformed by a catcher many thought was organizational depth after hitting just 21 HRs over 2000+ plate appearances in the minors in the last six seasons. Steve Clevenger also seems to be outperforming Soto behind the plate. Per Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago:

"Clevenger has made just five starts and has only 22 at-bats, but still leads the club with five doubles and starting pitchers have a 1.88 when he starts, compared to a 5.29 ERA when he doesn’t." 

For a guy with a defensive skills of the average replacement (-0.1 career dWAR), Soto needs to be providing value from the plate. In his breakout rookie year of 2008, he had an oWAR of 4.0 on a .285 average with 86 RBIs. While also a function of the declining lineup around him, Soto has fallen off since '08, not breaking 500 plate appearances or 55 RBIs in the last three seasons.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb: Deconstruction of the Hendry-Era Cubs

Contrary to the results earlier this week, the Cubs are not a series-winning team. Three and four run outputs aren't going to take down many teams come June and I don't think the spring winds off the lake are the only impediment to an offensive outburst from this club. Cubs starters have shown they can throw 5+ strong innings, but haven't shown the ability to cover up for the miserable bullpen by finishing strong late in games. The defense--albeit with improvements in the outfield minus Byrd and infield minus Ramirez--continues to be among the worst in baseball.

That said, it's time for Cubs fans, as many of us already have, to get comfortable aiming for middling results. The purpose of the 2012 season doesn't necessarily stray from doing what it takes to win ballgames--it just shifts from the absolute goal of winning a postseason bid to more individualistic (and attainable) goals of developing each player to the point of either (A) understanding their usefulness as they move towards contention or (B) showcasing their ability to current contenders in hopes of a better return.

Over the next four days, I'll explore some moves that would cut the final ties to the Hendry era and deconstruct the team into the building blocks of a future contender.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Series

Introduction
Part I: Sell on Soto

Part II: Flip the Fonz

Part III: Move Marmol
Part IV: Dump Demp

Conclusion