Through The Muck & The Mire: 2013 Cubs Preview - 2012 Review & 2013 Rotation

Year One of the Theo Era went... well, about as planned. A cold April (8-15) led to a quick dump of Marlon Byrd on the hapless Red Sox. May followed with the end of the Blake DeWitt er... Kerry Wood era, leading to further roster instability and a widening gap in the standings. By the end of June, the Cubs were 15 games out and in full sell-off mode. Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, and Geovany Soto netted a couple mid-level prospects alongside lottery ticket Arodys Vizcaino at the trade deadline, while the useful Jeff Baker headed out the door soon after. This made room for September callups: Welington Castillo (promising), Brett Jackson (poor), Josh Vitters (worse), and the pitchers (non-existent). The Cubs hit the 101-loss mark to close the season, leaving questions aplenty entering the offseason.

Cubs Contracts and Callups - Matt Garza

The Cubs have changed their mind on trading Garza and that's because of Jeff Samardzija. Including Ryan Dempster, the Cubs top three starters have a WHIP of 1.01 over 112 2/3 IP. Per reports, the emergence of Samardzija as a top-half-of-the-rotation starter has the Cubs believing the 1-2 punch of power arms could have them contending sooner rather than later. Thus the goal would be to move Dempster for a high-ceiling prospect or two (depending on picking up some portion of his remaining $14M deal) and negotiate long-term rights to Garza.

Love The Bomb Conclusion: What does this say about the future?

Clearly, the Cubs cannot make all these deals. Without a swift turnaround, Soriano, Marmol and Soto have limited trade value even at positions of need for contending clubs. Dempster's no-trade clause also limits the probability that he can be moved out of town as well. However, the Cubs need to leverage any performances exceeding expectation into increased talent in their minor league organization, especially young arms.

If anyone inquires on Jeff Baker, Blake DeWitt, or Reed Johnson, Theo and Jed should not hesitate to take whatever you can get for them. Soft-hitting Darwin Barney should be made expendable by the performance of Adrian Cardenas in AAA (.338 BA, .978 OPS, 3 K in 78 PAs). Paul Maholm, Kerry Wood, and Shawn Camp, though inexpensive, are also easily-replaceable parts. Calls for DeJesus, LaHair, and even Garza cannot be flatly rejected as the Cubs should be willing to hear out any overwhelming deals coming their way.

In short, only Starlin, Rizzo, and maybe Samardzija are untouchable at the moment. There are few players with guaranteed roles should the Cubs move into contention in future years. In all likelihood, the lack of power, inadequate bullpen and sketchy end of the rotation will leave the Cubs chasing .500 in vain for the rest of 2012. The focus of roster changes should be on moving out veteran parts to contenders for high-ceiling prospects. A strong minor league will only benefit the big club in future years, either contributing at Wrigley or holding value to move for veterans of their own as the team moves towards a playoff berth.


Over the next few months, we'll profile prospects that may contribute to a team in, say, 2015. What will the outfield look like? Are there any young aces in the system? Who will team with Rizzo and Castro on the infield? Prospects are always a difficult animal to dissect with injuries and changes to form common amongst young players. However, one thing can be certain--the Cubs need to move major league chips out in order to build talent depth for that 2015 contender.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Series

Introduction
Part I: Sell on Soto

Part II: Flip the Fonz

Part III: Move Marmol
Part IV: Dump Demp
Conclusion

Cubs Season Preview Part I - Rotation

With under 96 hours until the first pitch of the 2012 Cubs season, let me take a couple uneducated stabs at where I think this season starts, ends up, and leads to in the ever-brighter future.

Vegas and national media over/unders have the Cubs pegged at 74ish wins, which is a much brighter perspective than I expected to start the year. I have the Cubs at 73, which I think is entirely within the Cubs' boundaries as they are currently constructed. With a couple additions, the Cubs could stretch it to 82 or 83 wins, but I'm not sure Theo's willing to give up much for a far-fetched run at a somewhat open division race. If the current rotation experiments crap out and Rodrigo Lopez takes a spot by June, well, then a 67 win season is not out of the question.

Let's take a quick look at the four pieces of the roster - rotation, bullpen, starting eight, bench. I'll give some brief thoughts on where each player is at this point of his career and what he should be contributing to this Cubs team, but also take deeper dives into key contributors throughout the week as we prepare for the opener.