The suddenly-old-school Cole Hamels figures to take a chance at the open market this winter as the struggling Phillies decide what the future of their aging ballclub will look like. There are already talks of Hamels and fellow free-agent-to-be Shane Victorino being shopped by Philadelphia to avoid just draft-pick compensation for their departures.
As a top-5 lefty in the game, Hamels figures to chase a contract in the neighborhood of 8 years, $160M, nearing CC Sabathia for the largest contract for a pitcher in baseball history. Obviously that could become an Zito-esque albatross as quickly as you can say "shoulder soreness". Still, the shot at having a Hamels-Garza-Samardzija lead to the rotation while not having the pressure to develop a top-of-the-rotation guy from the subpar pitching depth in the Cubs' system would help Theo to build a contender as quickly as 2013.
This, of course, begs an interesting question. Is it worth paying a guy $20M for a 2013 season that even Wild Card contention is contingent on every guy in the lineup having at least above-average years? This move would clearly put pressure on Theo much earlier than many Cubs fans had scheduled title contention coming back into play. Should the front office stick to that original timetable or move on a type of pitcher that only becomes available once every three or so offseasons in this era of diminishing star free agents?
Likeliest Scenario: The Cubs make an effort to talk to Hamels, ultimately rebuffed due to a longer-term horizon for success, inferior facilities, and Magic Johnson's bags of cure-all gold. The Dodgers will throw huge money ($200M not out of the question) at Hamels in hopes that teaming him alongside Clayton Kershaw, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp will lead them to an outrageous TV contract a la the YES network. Hamels and his James Vanderbeek hair are meant for Hollywood anyways. The Cubs, meanwhile, stick to their guns, foregoing playoff chances in 2013 for an more inexpensive, organic and realistic shot in 2014 or 2015.
Cubs Contracts and Callups
Cole Hamels
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