Thursday, May 3, 2012

The End of the Marmol Era

"You have a game like that — I'm embarrassed right now."

I'm glad today's game was witnessed by no one. Well, let me rephrase that. I'm glad no one witnessed the 9th.



Those that like the nuances of pitching would probably have enjoyed Ryan Dempster's start. Dempster has truly taken over the title of crafty veteran this season, quickly overcoming an quad strain to throw eight innings of three-hit, one-walk ball. His ERA on the season is now leading the majors at 0.95. I don't think it would be a stretch to say the Dempster-Garza tandem have been among the best one-two punches in baseball thus far on the season. Their combined WHIP of 0.85 is the lowest of any duo in the league and amongst teammates their year-to-date has probably only been rivaled by Washington's Strasberg-Gonzalez-Zimmermann and LA's Lilly-Kershaw-Billingsley.

The Cubs also flashed some power today, knocking three solo shots out Soriano-style (though none were in fact hit by The Fonz). Starlin Castro continued his impressive form as of late, knocking out his first home run of the season to raise his OPS to a respectable .814 and Geo Soto also added a home run to lift his batting average 34 points over the last two games (still just .161).

Meanwhile, Brian LaHair continues to put up outstanding numbers, going 2-for-4 with a HR, single, and walk. LaHair is currently 2nd in the NL in OPS (1.282) behind otherworldly Matt Kemp and has as many homers as the rest of the Cubs combined. He's been the best hitting 1B in the league across all major categories thus far on the season and should warrant All-Star consideration should he keep his pace going through May.

However, today's effort was all spoiled by Carlos Marmol's most horrific outing yet. 18 pitches, 3 walks, a hit, and an Ian Stewart error led to a 3-run inning that tied the score. Rafael Dolis cleaned up Marmol's mess by inducing a run-surrendering but perfectly acceptable double-play ball followed by a groundout. Dolis followed up with a wild 10th in which a single, throwing error on a sac bunt attempt, and sac fly ended the game.

The more hitters see Marmol's vaunted slider, the more they realize it rarely finishes in the strike zone. Only six of Marmol's 18 pitches were strikes and 14 were sliders. Even Dusty Baker realizes he can tell his hitters to leave the bat on their shoulder and draw baserunners in a three-run game. 34 year old journeyman Willie Harris drew a walk on five pitches to start the inning. Marmol has blown three of his five save chances (only seven Cubs save chances on the year thus far) and leads the team in walks with 12 in just 8 2/3 innings.

After the game, an unamused Dale Sveum stewed on what may be Carlos Marmol's last chance at retaining the closer role:


"You've got to throw strikes and you have to throw strikes with your fastball. It's the same story again. Throwing 3-0 sliders when you have three-run leads is just not acceptable. We have to somehow make an adjustment there. We've got to throw fastballs in these situations." 


I believe it's safe to say Marmol has seen the last of his days as Cubs closer, at least until a cooling off period on the DL or spot manning the 7th inning. He's now blown 13 of 49 save chances over the past two seasons, the most of anyone in the majors over that stretch. Sveum came out and said there is "definitely a thought of [changing closers] now. I can't lie to you." The only options now seem to be:
  • Kerry Wood, who Sveum said he wasn't sure would even return to the eighth inning when coming back from the DL
  • James Russell, the only lefty remaining in the Cubs bullpen after Scott Maine returned to Iowa today, or
  • Rafael Dolis, a 24-year-old with just 15 innings of major league work under his belt.
Rafael Dolis should be the closer for tomorrow's return to Wrigley against the streaking Dodgers. In limited time, he has displayed the stuff of a potential closer. Dolis has a devastating mid- to upper-90s fastball with late movement and showed off his developing slider for the final strike of the game Wednesday night. It looks like he'll get his chance to audition for the closer role sooner rather than later, forced to take the premier role in a bullpen that has been anything but through the first month of the season.

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