Catching up on the White Sox - A Two Month Review (This movie gets no stars)

by Michael Many

I’m a White Sox fan. Or at least right now, I’m a Blackhawks fan who supports the baseball club known as the Chicago White Sox. Because I am a White Sox fan, and because this team was relatively unchanged from a 2012 campaign that saw them go 85-77, I thought that a few additions, the improvement of a few young players, and a bit of luck would result in a similar season as 2012. Here’s what I wrote in my preview back before the season started:

“There are a lot of things that need to go well for the Sox to compete, and the very real possibility that things go all Walter White and break bad. The key pieces for the Sox are pretty straightforward. Keep Sale, Peavy, and Floyd healthy, and receive some starting pitching support from any combination of Q, Santiago, Axel Rose, and Johnny Danks. Get Adam Dunn a bit higher over the Mendoza Line. Keep the Tank moving forward as he blows through enemy lines (pitching staffs).[…] I think this will be a solid White Sox team, and with the veteran leadership in the clubhouse and Robin at the helm, they will compete every day.”

After the Sox lost their 8^th game in a row yesterday, dropping from 24-24 to 24-32 over that span, I realized that I was kind of right and kind of wrong in my prediction. Unfortunately, I was kind of right about the fact that there are a lot of things that need to go well, and I was kind of right that things could break bad. And I was kind of wrong that they would compete every day. So let’s see what’s caused this team to go from quietly hopeful in April to utterly unwatchable in June.


 

Keep Sale, Peavy, and Floyd healthy, and receive some starting pitching support from any combination of Q, Santiago, Axel Rose, and Johnny Danks.

How are the Sox doing? Good! And bad. 

I guess it’s nice that we get to start with the good for the Sox, and that has been their starting pitching. 

Let’s go down the list:

Chris Sale: 5-3, 70 IP, 8.49 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 2.44 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.8 WAR

Jose Quintana (!!)- 3-2, 63 IP, 6.86 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 3.86 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.4 WAR

Jake (Bulldog) Peavy- 6-4, 67 IP, 8.87 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 4.30 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.4 WAR

Dylan “Battle Axe” Axelrod- 3-4, 64.2 IP, 5.01 K/9, 2.23 BB/9, 4.04 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 0.9 WAR

Bonus: Addison Reed- 1-0 (17/18 Saves), 24.0 IP, 10.13 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.25 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 1.0 WAR

After two months, the only real strength of the White Sox has been their pitching. Chris Sale missed one start due to shoulder tendonitis, but was back throwing 95 mph the next outing. Quintana has continued to be an extremely useful pitcher, especially considering he’s really a fourth starter. Even the Battle Axe has provided almost one win above replacement in value, which is excellent considering he is basically the definition of a replacement level player. Addison Reed has utilized his slider much more effectively against right handed hitters, giving him a full arsenal of pitchers for a closer. Against righties, he has attacked with his two-seam and four-seam fastballs and a slider, and against lefties, he has attacked with both fastballs, the occasional slider, and a plus changeup. 

However, while the above discusses the good, there’s still the bad. Sale has stayed healthy, but the Sox lost Gavin Floyd to Tommy John surgery and don’t expect him back until the middle of the 2014 season. And after giving up six runs on seven hits in 2.1 innings on Tuesday night, Jake Peavy exited the game with pain in the left side of his ribs. The MRI results are not yet confirmed, but early reports were not good coming from the Sox. 

Lastly, John Danks is back pitching with the big club, but he does not seem like the John Danks of old. With a fastball still hovering around 86-88 mph, it’s clear that Danks is not yet healthy, and for a fastball-changeup pitcher like Danks, those extra 3-4 ticks on the gun make all the difference. Fans have suggested  that Danks needs to “reinvent himself” and “PITCH MORE LIKE DAT BURLY GUY.” STOP. Suggesting a pitcher who has been one way his whole life should recreate himself to pitch like one of the best pitchers in Sox history is idiotic and unrealistic. Danks needs his shoulder to be healthy and he needs velocity. In his three MLB starts this season, Danks has pitched 16 innings, has an ERA of 5.63, an FIP of 5.38, has given up 4 HR and has only 12 strikeouts. Further, these three outings came against the Marlins, Cubs, and Mariners, three of the more anemic offenses in baseball. 

The Sox pitching has held up its end of the bargain, but with the latest news on Peavy, the durability concerns surrounding Sale, Quintana, and Danks, and the continued reliance on the Battle Axe, the outlook for the pitching staff is grim. 

Get Adam Dunn a bit higher over the Mendoza Line. Keep the Tank moving forward as he blows through enemy lines (pitching staffs).

How are the Sox doing? Poorly. Really, really poorly. 

Earlier in my preview, I wrote that Dayan Viciedo was probably the key factor to the Sox offensive success. If he showed up and continued to improve on the last few months of his 2012 season, and finished with HR in the high 20’s/low 30’s, cut down on strikeouts, increased the average… ok I just need to stop. Viciedo came into the season overweight, crappy in the outfield, and with no apparent approach at the plate other than “swing as hard as I can all the time.” This resulting in the Tank missing time on the DL and providing little of the offensive production the Sox so desperately need. And his buddies haven’t helped much either.  Let’s just look at how the White Sox run producers/ key offensive performers, including Viciedo, have fared thus far.

Dayan Viciedo- .244/.290/.394- 4 HR, 13 RBI, 36K: -0.1 WAR

Adam Dunn- .166 (!!!!!!)/ .252/ .401- 13 HR, 31 RBI, 72 K: -1.0 WAR

Paul Konerko- .235/.296/.353- 5 HR, 21 RBI, 35K: -0.9 WAR

Jeff Keppinger- .232/.237/.268- 1 HR, 15 RBI, 19K: -1.3WAR 

The White Sox have scored 192 runs, good for 3.4 runs per game, and 29^th in the MLB. And to call the Sox offense “soul-crushing” may be putting it nicely. Here’s an example of a typical Sox inning, which occurred Monday night in their game against the Mariners:

A De Aza singled to right center.

A Ramirez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, A De Aza out at second.

A Rios hit a ground rule double to right.

P Konerko struck out looking. 

For most teams, if the top of your lineup produced a double and a single in the same inning, you could count on AT LEAST one run, but not this team. Strikeouts are up, contact is down, and the Sox have the second lowest team OPS (.655) in baseball. 

So what’s next?

The good news is, the Sox should expect some regression back to the mean. The bad news is, the Sox should expect some regression to the mean. The question is, will the possible positive regression of Dunn, Konerko, Keppinger,  and Viciedo be offset by the likely negative regression to be experienced by Quintana, Battle Axe, and Sale? While it would be hard to imagine the Sox offense being this repugnant all season, it is also unreasonable to expect them to continue to pitch lights out all year. As of right now, things are looking way, way down on the South Side. If things don’t improve quickly, this could be a long summer at 35^th and Shields. Let’s hope the Blackhawks make a deep run, and hey, only 86 days until Notre Dame football.